The Library
Why do some soccer bettors lose more money than others?
Tools
Tools
Tools
Buhagiar, Ranier, Cortis, Dominic and Newall, Philip (2018) Why do some soccer bettors lose more money than others? Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 18 . pp. 85-93. doi:10.1016/j.jbef.2018.01.010 ISSN 2214-6350.
|
PDF
WRAP-why-some-soccer-bettors-lose-money-than-others-Newall-2018.pdf - Accepted Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Download (1501Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2018.01.010
Abstract
Why do some soccer bettors lose more money than others? In an efficient prediction market, each gambler should break-even before costs (but losing a constant amount after costs, reflecting the bookmaker’s margin). Previous empirical studies across numerous sports betting markets show that bets on longshots tend to lose more than bets on favourites (favourite-longshot bias). We use 163,992 soccer odds from ten European leagues to test plausible hypotheses around why some soccer bettors lose more money than others. Are soccer bettors with above average losses simply biased, or are their losses driven by betting on events that are inherently unpredictable? We confirm the existence of favourite-longshot bias in soccer in this sample, but find another surprising feature of betting on longshots. As measured by the Brier score, bookmakers’ odds were better predictors of longshots than favourites, suggesting another potential channel whereby bettors’ preference for betting on longshots may cost them dearly.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subjects: | G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GV Recreation Leisure | ||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Engineering > WMG (Formerly the Warwick Manufacturing Group) | ||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Soccer -- Betting., Gambling systems., Sports betting -- Economic aspects., Risk-taking (Psychology), Gambling -- Decision making -- Mathematical models. | ||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance | ||||||||
| Publisher: | Elsevier | ||||||||
| ISSN: | 2214-6350 | ||||||||
| Official Date: | June 2018 | ||||||||
| Dates: |
|
||||||||
| Volume: | 18 | ||||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 85-93 | ||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jbef.2018.01.010 | ||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 20 April 2018 | ||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 14 August 2019 |
Request changes or add full text files to a record
Repository staff actions (login required)
 |
View Item |
Downloads
Downloads per month over past year
