UNSPECIFIED. (2002) Football goal distributions and extremal statistics. PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS, 316 (1-4). pp. 615-624. ISSN 0378-4371

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Abstract

We analyse the distributions of the number of goals scored by home teams, away teams, and the total scored in the match, in domestic football games from 169 countries between 1999 and 2001. The probability density functions (PDFs) of goals scored are too heavy-tailed to be fitted over their entire ranges by Poisson or negative binomial distributions which would be expected for uncorrelated processes. Log-normal distributions cannot include zero scores and here we find that the PDFs are consistent with those arising from extremal statistics. In addition, we show that it is sufficient to model English top division and FA Cup matches in the seasons of 1970/712000/01 on Poisson or negative binomial distributions, as reported in analyses of earlier seasons, and that these are not consistent with extremal statistics. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	Q Science > QC Physics
Journal or Publication Title:	PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS
Publisher:	ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
ISSN:	0378-4371
Official Date:	15 December 2002
Dates:	Date Event 15 December 2002 UNSPECIFIED
Volume:	316
Number:	1-4
Number of Pages:	10
Page Range:	pp. 615-624
Publication Status:	Published
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/10192

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