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Policy lessons from quantitative modeling of leprosy

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Medley, Graham, Blok, David J., Crump, Ronald, Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre, Galvani, Alison P., Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L., Porco, Travis C. and Richardus, Jan Hendrik (2018) Policy lessons from quantitative modeling of leprosy. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 66 (Supplement 4). S281-S285. doi:10.1093/cid/ciy005

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciy005

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Abstract

Recent mathematical and statistical modeling of leprosy incidence data provides estimates of the current undiagnosed population and projections of diagnosed cases, as well as ongoing transmission. Furthermore, modeling studies have been used to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed intervention strategies, such as postleprosy exposure prophylaxis and novel diagnostics, relative to current approaches. Such modeling studies have revealed both a slow decline of new cases and a substantial pool of undiagnosed infections. These findings highlight the need for active case detection, particularly targeting leprosy foci, as well as for continued research into innovative accurate, rapid, and cost-effective diagnostics. As leprosy incidence continues to decline, targeted active case detection primarily in foci and connected areas will likely become increasingly important.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: R Medicine > RC Internal medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- )
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Leprosy -- Diagnosis -- Mathematical models, Leprosy -- Transmission -- Mathematical models
Journal or Publication Title: Clinical Infectious Diseases
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISSN: 1537-6591
Official Date: 1 June 2018
Dates:
DateEvent
1 June 2018Published
27 December 2017Accepted
Volume: 66
Number: Supplement 4
Page Range: S281-S285
DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciy005
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
OPP1053230Bill and Melinda Gates Foundationhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000865
UNSPECIFIEDNovartis Foundation for Sustainable Developmenthttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100004416

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