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Fetzer, Thiemo, Souza, Pedro C. L., Vanden Eynde, Oliver and Wright, Austin L. (2018) Security transitions. Working Paper. Coventry: University of Warwick. Department of Economics. Warwick economics research papers series (WERPS) (1171). (Unpublished)
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Official URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/w...
Abstract
How do foreign powers disengage from a conflict? We study the recent largescale security transition from international troops to local forces in the context of the ongoing civil conflict in Afghanistan. We construct a new dataset that combines information on this transition process with declassified conflict outcomes and previously unreleased quarterly survey data. Our empirical design leverages the staggered roll-out of the transition onset, together with a novel instrumental variables approach to estimate the impact of the two-phase security transition. We find that the initial security transfer to Afghan forces is marked by a significant, sharp and timely decline in insurgent violence. This effect reverses with the actual physical withdrawal of foreign troops. We argue that this pattern is consistent with a signaling model, in which the insurgents reduce violence strategically to facilitate the foreign military withdrawal. Our findings clarify the destabilizing consequences of withdrawal in one of the costliest conflicts in modern history and yield potentially actionable insights for designing future security transitions.
| Item Type: | Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper) | ||||||
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| Subjects: | D History General and Old World > DS Asia J Political Science > JZ International relations |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics | ||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Afghan War, 2001-, Intervention (International law), Civil war -- Afghānistān, Security, International | ||||||
| Series Name: | Warwick economics research papers series (WERPS) | ||||||
| Publisher: | University of Warwick. Department of Economics | ||||||
| Place of Publication: | Coventry | ||||||
| ISSN: | 0083-7350 | ||||||
| Official Date: | 18 July 2018 | ||||||
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| Number: | 1171 | ||||||
| Number of Pages: | 56 | ||||||
| Institution: | University of Warwick | ||||||
| Status: | Not Peer Reviewed | ||||||
| Publication Status: | Unpublished | ||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access | ||||||
| Description: | This paper also appears as CAGE discussion paper 383 |
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| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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