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Fetzer, Thiemo, Souza, Pedro C. L., Vanden Eynde, Oliver and Wright, Austin L. (2018) Security transitions. Working Paper. Coventry: University of Warwick. Department of Economics. Warwick economics research papers series (WERPS) (1171). (Unpublished)

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Official URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/w...

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Abstract

How do foreign powers disengage from a conflict? We study the recent largescale security transition from international troops to local forces in the context of the ongoing civil conflict in Afghanistan. We construct a new dataset that combines information on this transition process with declassified conflict outcomes and previously unreleased quarterly survey data. Our empirical design leverages the staggered roll-out of the transition onset, together with a novel instrumental variables approach to estimate the impact of the two-phase security transition. We find that the initial security transfer to Afghan forces is marked by a significant, sharp and timely decline in insurgent violence. This effect reverses with the actual physical withdrawal of foreign troops. We argue that this pattern is consistent with a signaling model, in which the insurgents reduce violence strategically to facilitate the foreign military withdrawal. Our findings clarify the destabilizing consequences of withdrawal in one of the costliest conflicts in modern history and yield potentially actionable insights for designing future security transitions.

Item Type: Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)
Subjects: D History General and Old World > DS Asia
J Political Science > JZ International relations
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Afghan War, 2001-, Intervention (International law), Civil war -- Afghānistān, Security, International
Series Name: Warwick economics research papers series (WERPS)
Publisher: University of Warwick. Department of Economics
Place of Publication: Coventry
ISSN: 0083-7350
Official Date: 18 July 2018
Dates:
DateEvent
18 July 2018Published
Number: 1171
Number of Pages: 56
Institution: University of Warwick
Status: Not Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Unpublished
Access rights to Published version: Open Access
Description:

This paper also appears as CAGE discussion paper 383

RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
UNSPECIFIEDPearson institute for the study and resolution of conflictsUNSPECIFIED

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