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Who voted for Brexit? Individual and regional data combined

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Alabrese, Eleanora, Becker, Sascha O., Fetzer, Thiemo and Novy, Dennis (2019) Who voted for Brexit? Individual and regional data combined. European Journal of Political Economy, 56 . pp. 132-150. doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2018.08.002

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2018.08.002

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Abstract

Previous analyses of the 2016 Brexit referendum used region-level data or small samples based on polling data. The former might be subject to ecological fallacy and the latter might suffer from small-sample bias. We use individual-level data on thousands of respondents in Understanding Society, the UK’s largest household survey, which includes the EU referendum question. We find that voting Leave is associated with older age, white ethnicity, low educational attainment, infrequent use of smartphones and the internet, receiving benefits, adverse health and low life satisfaction. These results coincide with corresponding patterns at the aggregate level of voting areas. We therefore do not find evidence of ecological fallacy. In addition, we show that prediction accuracy is geographically heterogeneous across UK regions, with strongly pro-Leave and strongly pro-Remain areas easier to predict. We also show that among individuals with similar socioeconomic characteristics, Labour supporters are more likely to support Remain while Conservative supporters are more likely to support Leave.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
J Political Science > JF Political institutions (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): European Union -- Great Britain, Referendum -- Regional disparities -- Great Britain, Populism
Journal or Publication Title: European Journal of Political Economy
Publisher: Elsevier BV
ISSN: 0176-2680
Official Date: January 2019
Dates:
DateEvent
January 2019Published
8 August 2018Available
2 August 2018Accepted
Volume: 56
Page Range: pp. 132-150
DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2018.08.002
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access
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