Skip to content Skip to navigation
University of Warwick
  • Study
  • |
  • Research
  • |
  • Business
  • |
  • Alumni
  • |
  • News
  • |
  • About

University of Warwick
Publications service & WRAP

Highlight your research

  • WRAP
    • Home
    • Search WRAP
    • Browse by Warwick Author
    • Browse WRAP by Year
    • Browse WRAP by Subject
    • Browse WRAP by Department
    • Browse WRAP by Funder
    • Browse Theses by Department
  • Publications Service
    • Home
    • Search Publications Service
    • Browse by Warwick Author
    • Browse Publications service by Year
    • Browse Publications service by Subject
    • Browse Publications service by Department
    • Browse Publications service by Funder
  • Help & Advice
University of Warwick

The Library

  • Login
  • Admin

Demographic impact of AIDS in a low-fertility urban African setting: Projection for Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Tools
- Tools
+ Tools

UNSPECIFIED (2002) Demographic impact of AIDS in a low-fertility urban African setting: Projection for Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. JOURNAL OF HEALTH POPULATION AND NUTRITION, 20 (2). pp. 120-129.

Research output not available from this repository.

Request-a-Copy directly from author or use local Library Get it For Me service.

Request Changes to record.

Abstract

The study estimated the potential demographic impact of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in a low-fertility urban setting in sub-Saharan Africa. The prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) projected using a deterministic mathematical model was put into the AIDS Impact Model (AIM) of the SPECTRUM Policy Modelling System to estimate the potential demographic impact of AIDS in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Demographic indicators from 1984 (the start of the HIV epidemic in Ethiopia) to 2024, including and excluding the HIV epidemic, were compared. Addis Ababa is experiencing a demographic transition in which the total fertility rate has declined from 3.8 to below replacement level over the last 20 years. The prevalence of HIV is predicted to stabilize at 10% in adults, resulting in a total number of people living with HIV at 200,000 and a cumulative number of deaths due to AIDS at 50,000. About 60% of adult deaths can be attributable to AIDS by 2000. The epidemic is predicted to reduce life expectancy by 10 and 17 years in 2000 and 2024 respectively, and to turn to negative, the rate of natural increase after 2009. Accordingly, the rate of natural increase will be -0.18%, -0.35%, and -0.71% per annum by 2009, 2014, and 2024 respectively. Population growth is expected to continue with or without HIV, as a result of high net in-migration, although data for migration are scanty. In a low-fertility urban society of Africa, this study shows the potential for the HIV/AIDS epidemic to turn the rate of natural increase to negative.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Journal or Publication Title: JOURNAL OF HEALTH POPULATION AND NUTRITION
Publisher: I C D D R B-CENTRE HEALTH POPULATION RESEARCH
ISSN: 1606-0997
Official Date: June 2002
Dates:
DateEvent
June 2002UNSPECIFIED
Volume: 20
Number: 2
Number of Pages: 10
Page Range: pp. 120-129
Publication Status: Published

Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge

Request changes or add full text files to a record

Repository staff actions (login required)

View Item View Item
twitter

Email us: wrap@warwick.ac.uk
Contact Details
About Us