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Estimating the efficacy of community-wide use of systemic insecticides in dogs to control zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis : a modelling study in a Brazilian scenario
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Gomez, Sonia A, Chapman, Lloyd A. C., Dilger, Erin, Courtenay, Orin and Picado, Albert (2018) Estimating the efficacy of community-wide use of systemic insecticides in dogs to control zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis : a modelling study in a Brazilian scenario. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 12 (9). e0006797. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0006797 ISSN 1935-2727.
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WRAP-estimating-efficacy-community-wide-systemic-insecticides-zoonotic-scenario-Courtenay-2018.pdf - Accepted Version Embargoed item. Restricted access to Repository staff only - Requires a PDF viewer. Download (414Kb) |
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006797
Abstract
Systemic insecticides in dogs have been suggested as a public health intervention to prevent human cases of Zoonotic Visceral Leishmaniasis (ZVL). But, currently there are no systemic insecticides for dogs registered against zoo-anthropophilic pool blood feeding phlebotomine flies. We predict the impact of community-wide use of systemic insecticide in dog populations as a public health measure to control transmission of Leishmania infantum to humans using a mathematical model. We developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected (SEI) compartmental model to describe L. infantum transmission dynamics in dogs, with a vectorial capacity term to represent transmission between L. infantum-hosting dogs via phlebotomine flies. For Infected (I) dogs two levels of infectiousness were modelled, high infectiousness and low infectiousness. Human incidence was estimated through its relationship to infection in the dog population. We evaluated outcomes from a wide range of scenarios comprising different combinations of initial insecticide efficacy, duration of insecticide efficacy over time, and proportion of the dog population treated (60%, 70% & 80%). The same reduction in human infection incidence can be achieved via different combinations of insecticide efficacy, duration and dog coverage. For example, a systemic insecticide with an initial efficacy of 80% and 6 months above 65% efficacy would require treating at least 70% of the dogs to reduce the human infection incidence by 50%. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model outcome was most sensitive to baseline values of phlebotomine fly daily survival rate and insecticide coverage. Community-wide use of systemic insecticides applied to the “L. infantum canine reservoir” can significantly reduce human incidence of L. infantum infection. The results of this mathematical model can help defining the insecticide target product profile and how the insecticide should be applied to maximise effectiveness.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||
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Subjects: | R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine R Medicine > RC Internal medicine |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) | ||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Kala-azar -- Prevention -- Mathematical models, Animals as carriers of disease, Insecticides, Public health -- Brazil | ||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases | ||||||
Publisher: | Public Library of Science | ||||||
ISSN: | 1935-2727 | ||||||
Official Date: | 17 September 2018 | ||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 12 | ||||||
Number: | 9 | ||||||
Article Number: | e0006797 | ||||||
DOI: | 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006797 | ||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 30 August 2018 | ||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 22 October 2018 | ||||||
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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