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The impact of surveillance and control on highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Dhaka division, Bangladesh

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Hill, Edward M., House, Thomas A., Dhingra, Madhur S., Kalpravidh, Wantanee, Morzaria, Subhash, Osmani, Muzaffar G., Brum, Eric, Yamage, Mat, Kalam, Md. A., Prosser, Diann J., Takekawa, John Y., Xiao, Xiangming, Gilbert, Marius and Tildesley, Michael J. (2018) The impact of surveillance and control on highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Dhaka division, Bangladesh. PLOS Computational Biology, 14 (9). e1006439. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006439 ISSN 1553-7358.

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006439

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Abstract

In Bangladesh, the poultry industry is an economically and socially important sector, but it is persistently threatened by the effects of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza. Thus, identifying the optimal control policy in response to an emerging disease outbreak is a key challenge for policy-makers. To inform this aim, a common approach is to carry out simulation studies comparing plausible strategies, while accounting for known capacity restrictions. In this study we perform simulations of a previously developed H5N1 influenza transmission model framework, fitted to two separate historical outbreaks, to assess specific control objectives related to the burden or duration of H5N1 outbreaks among poultry farms in the Dhaka division of Bangladesh. In particular, we explore the optimal implementation of ring culling, ring vaccination and active surveillance measures when presuming disease transmission predominately occurs from premises-to-premises, versus a setting requiring the inclusion of external factors. Additionally, we determine the sensitivity of the management actions under consideration to differing levels of capacity constraints and outbreaks with disparate transmission dynamics. While we find that reactive culling and vaccination policies should pay close attention to these factors to ensure intervention targeting is optimised, across multiple settings the top performing control action amongst those under consideration were targeted proactive surveillance schemes. Our findings may advise the type of control measure, plus its intensity, that could potentially be applied in the event of a developing outbreak of H5N1 amongst originally H5N1 virus-free commercially-reared poultry in the Dhaka division of Bangladesh.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
S Agriculture > SF Animal culture
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- )
Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics
SWORD Depositor: Library Publications Router
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Avian influenza, Epidemics -- Prevention, Avian influenza -- Bangladesh, Public health surveillance, Poultry -- Virus diseases
Journal or Publication Title: PLOS Computational Biology
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
ISSN: 1553-7358
Official Date: 13 September 2018
Dates:
DateEvent
13 September 2018Published
16 August 2018Accepted
Volume: 14
Number: 9
Article Number: e1006439
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006439
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit: 26 September 2018
Date of first compliant Open Access: 26 September 2018
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
EP/I01358X/1[EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
EP/P511079/1[EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
EP/N033701/1[EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
1R01AI101028-02A1National Institutes of Healthhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000002
RAPIDD programScience and Technology Directoratehttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100008287
RAPIDD programU.S. Department of Homeland Securityhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000180
RAPIDD programFogarty International Centerhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000061
Emerging Pandemic Threats ProgramUnited States Agency for International Developmenthttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000200
SRO/BGD/303/USAUnited States Agency for International Developmenthttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000200
EP/K000128/1[EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
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