Skip to content Skip to navigation
University of Warwick
  • Study
  • |
  • Research
  • |
  • Business
  • |
  • Alumni
  • |
  • News
  • |
  • About

University of Warwick
Publications service & WRAP

Highlight your research

  • WRAP
    • Home
    • Search WRAP
    • Browse by Warwick Author
    • Browse WRAP by Year
    • Browse WRAP by Subject
    • Browse WRAP by Department
    • Browse WRAP by Funder
    • Browse Theses by Department
  • Publications Service
    • Home
    • Search Publications Service
    • Browse by Warwick Author
    • Browse Publications service by Year
    • Browse Publications service by Subject
    • Browse Publications service by Department
    • Browse Publications service by Funder
  • Help & Advice
University of Warwick

The Library

  • Login
  • Admin

Epidemiological analysis of the Eyam plague outbreak of 1665–1666

Tools
- Tools
+ Tools

Whittles, Lilith K. and Didelot, Xavier (2016) Epidemiological analysis of the Eyam plague outbreak of 1665–1666. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 283 (1830). doi:10.1098/rspb.2016.0618

Research output not available from this repository, contact author.
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2016.0618

Request Changes to record.

Abstract

Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is one of the deadliest infectious diseases in human history, and still causes worrying outbreaks in Africa and South America. Despite the historical and current importance of plague, several questions remain unanswered concerning its transmission routes and infection risk factors. The plague outbreak that started in September 1665 in the Derbyshire village of Eyam claimed 257 lives over 14 months, wiping out entire families. Since previous attempts at modelling the Eyam plague, new data have been unearthed from parish records revealing a much more complete record of the disease. Using a stochastic compartmental model and Bayesian analytical methods, we found that both rodent-to-human and human-to-human transmission played an important role in spreading the infection, and that they accounted, respectively, for a quarter and three-quarters of all infections, with a statistically significant seasonality effect. We also found that the force of infection was stronger for infectious individuals living in the same household compared with the rest of the village. Poverty significantly increased the risk of disease, whereas adulthood decreased the risk. These results on the Eyam outbreak contribute to the current debate on the relative importance of plague transmission routes.

Item Type: Journal Article
Divisions: Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- )
Journal or Publication Title: Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Publisher: The Royal Society Publishing
ISSN: 0962-8452
Official Date: 11 May 2016
Dates:
DateEvent
11 May 2016Published
13 April 2016Accepted
Volume: 283
Number: 1830
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2016.0618
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access
Related URLs:
  • Other Repository

Request changes or add full text files to a record

Repository staff actions (login required)

View Item View Item
twitter

Email us: wrap@warwick.ac.uk
Contact Details
About Us