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Road distance and travel time for an improved house price Kriging predictor
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Crosby, Henry James, Damoulas, Theodoros, Caton, Alexander, Davis, Paul, Albuquerque, João Porto de and Jarvis, Stephen A. (2018) Road distance and travel time for an improved house price Kriging predictor. Geo-spatial Information Science, 21 (3). pp. 185-194. doi:10.1080/10095020.2018.1503775 ISSN 1009-5020.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10095020.2018.1503775
Abstract
The paper designs an automated valuation model to predict the price of residential property in Coventry, United Kingdom, and achieves this by means of geostatistical Kriging, a popularly employed distance-based learning method. Unlike traditional applications of distance-based learning, this papers implements non-Euclidean distance metrics by approximating road distance, travel time and a linear combination of both, which this paper hypothesizes to be more related to house prices than straight-line (Euclidean) distance. Given that – to undertake Kriging – a valid variogram must be produced, this paper exploits the conforming properties of the Minkowski distance function to approximate a road distance and travel time metric. A least squares approach is put forth for variogram parameter selection and an ordinary Kriging predictor is implemented for interpolation. The predictor is then validated with 10-fold cross-validation and a spatially aware checkerboard hold out method against the almost exclusively employed, Euclidean metric. Given a comparison of results for each distance metric, this paper witnesses a goodness of fit (r²) result of 0.6901 ± 0.18 SD for real estate price prediction compared to the traditional (Euclidean) approach obtaining a suboptimal r² value of 0.66 ± 0.21 SD.
Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||||||||
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Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HF Commerce Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76 Electronic computers. Computer science. Computer software |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Computer Science Faculty of Social Sciences > Centre for Interdisciplinary Methodologies Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics |
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Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Real property -- Valuation -- Statistical methods, Valuation -- Statistical methods, Kriging, Minkowski geometry, Travel time (Traffic engineering), Housing -- Prices | |||||||||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Geo-spatial Information Science | |||||||||||||||
Publisher: | Taylor & Francis Asia Pacific | |||||||||||||||
ISSN: | 1009-5020 | |||||||||||||||
Official Date: | 21 September 2018 | |||||||||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 21 | |||||||||||||||
Number: | 3 | |||||||||||||||
Page Range: | pp. 185-194 | |||||||||||||||
DOI: | 10.1080/10095020.2018.1503775 | |||||||||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | |||||||||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 8 October 2018 | |||||||||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 9 October 2018 | |||||||||||||||
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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