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Fraud is what people make of it : election fraud and participation in protest in Nigeria
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Daxecker, Ursula, Di Salvatore, Jessica and Ruggeri, Andrea (2019) Fraud is what people make of it : election fraud and participation in protest in Nigeria. Journal of Conflict Resolution , 63 (9). pp. 2098-2127. doi:10.1177/0022002718824636 ISSN 0022-0027.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002718824636
Abstract
Why do fraudulent elections encourage protesting? Scholars suggest that information about fraud shapes individuals’ beliefs and propensity to protest. Yet these accounts neglect the complexity of opinion formation and have not been tested at the individual level. We distinguish between the mobilizing effects of actual incidents of election fraud and individuals’ subjective perceptions of fraud. While rational updating models would imply that both measures similarly affect mobilization, we argue that subjective fraud perceptions are more consistent predictors of protesting, also being shaped by attitudes, information, and community networks. Our empirical analysis uses geo-referenced individual-level data on fraud events, fraud perception, and protesting from the 2007 Nigerian elections. Our analysis yields two main findings: proximity to reported fraud has no effect on protesting and citizens perceiving elections as fraudulent are consistently more likely to protest, and more so if embedded in community networks.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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Subjects: | J Political Science > JQ Political institutions (Asia, Africa, Australia, Pacific Area, etc.) | ||||||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Politics and International Studies | ||||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Elections -- Corrupt practices -- Nígería, Contested elections -- Nígería, Political violence -- Nígería | ||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of Conflict Resolution | ||||||||
Publisher: | Sage Publications Ltd. | ||||||||
ISSN: | 0022-0027 | ||||||||
Official Date: | 1 October 2019 | ||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 63 | ||||||||
Number: | 9 | ||||||||
Page Range: | pp. 2098-2127 | ||||||||
DOI: | 10.1177/0022002718824636 | ||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
Reuse Statement (publisher, data, author rights): | Posted ahead of print. Daxecker, Ursula, Di Salvatore, Jessica and Ruggeri, Andrea (2018) Fraud is what people make of it : election fraud and participation in protest in Nigeria. Journal of Conflict Resolution. Copyright ©2018 The Authors. Reprinted by permission of SAGE Publications. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002718824636 | ||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 11 December 2018 | ||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 12 December 2018 | ||||||||
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