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The economic effects of Brexit : evidence from the stock market

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Breinlich, Holger, Leromain, Elsa, Novy, Dennis, Sampson, Thomas and Usman, Ahmed (2018) The economic effects of Brexit : evidence from the stock market. Fiscal Studies, 39 (4). pp. 581-623. doi:10.1111/1475-5890.12175 ISSN 0143-5671.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1475-5890.12175

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Abstract

We study stock market reactions to the Brexit referendum on 23 June 2016 in order to assess investors’ expectations about the effects of leaving the European Union on the UK economy. Our results suggest that initial stock price movements were driven by fears of a cyclical downturn and by the sterling depreciation following the referendum. We also find tentative evidence that market reactions to two subsequent speeches by Theresa May (her Conservative party conference and Lancaster House speeches) were more closely correlated with potential changes to tariffs and non‐tariff barriers on UK–EU trade, indicating that investors may have updated their expectations in light of the possibility of a ‘hard Brexit’. We do not find a correlation between the share of EU immigrants in different industries and stock market returns.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): European Union -- Great Britain -- Commerce, Stock exchanges -- London (England), Pound, British, May, Theresa, 1956-
Journal or Publication Title: Fiscal Studies
Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Inc
ISSN: 0143-5671
Official Date: 18 December 2018
Dates:
DateEvent
18 December 2018Published
2 September 2018Accepted
Volume: 39
Number: 4
Page Range: pp. 581-623
DOI: 10.1111/1475-5890.12175
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit: 20 December 2018
Date of first compliant Open Access: 20 December 2018
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
ES/R001804/1[ESRC] Economic and Social Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000269

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