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Warming trends in summer heatwaves

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Chapman, Sandra C., Watkins, Nicholas W. and Stainforth, David A. (2019) Warming trends in summer heatwaves. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 . doi:10.1029/2018GL081004 ISSN 0094-8276.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081004

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Abstract

The frequency and severity of heatwaves is expected to increase as the global climate warms. We apply crossing theory for the first time to determine heatwave properties solely from the distribution of daily observations without time‐correlation information. We use Central England Temperature timeseries to quantify how the simple increased occurrence of higher temperatures makes heatwaves (consecutive summer days with temperatures exceeding a threshold) more frequent and intense. We find an overall 2‐3‐fold increase in heatwave activity since the late 1800's. Week‐long heatwaves that on average return every 5 years were typically below ∼28°C and now typically exceed it. Our analysis takes as inputs average user‐specific heatwave properties. Its output pinpoints the range of temperatures for which changes in the distribution must be well‐resolved statistically in order to track how these heatwave properties are changing. This provides a quantitative benchmark for models used for the attribution of heatwaves.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: Q Science > QC Physics
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Physics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Heat waves (Meteorology), Climatic changes
Journal or Publication Title: Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
ISSN: 0094-8276
Official Date: 2019
Dates:
DateEvent
2019Published
18 January 2019Available
13 January 2019Accepted
Volume: 46
DOI: 10.1029/2018GL081004
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Re-use Statement: Accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters. Copyright 2019 American Geophysical Union. Further reproduction or electronic distribution is not permitted.
Access rights to Published version: Open Access (Creative Commons)
Copyright Holders: American Geophysical Union
Date of first compliant deposit: 22 January 2019
Date of first compliant Open Access: 23 January 2019
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
UNSPECIFIEDFulbright Associationhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010629
UNSPECIFIEDLloyd's (Firm)http://viaf.org/viaf/126447642
FA9550-17-1-0054Air Force Office of Scientific Researchhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000181
ST/P000320/1[STFC] Science and Technology Facilities Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000271
UNSPECIFIEDLondon School of Economics and Political Sciencehttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100011326
UNSPECIFIED[ESRC] Economic and Social Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000269
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