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Warming trends in summer heatwaves
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Chapman, Sandra C., Watkins, Nicholas W. and Stainforth, David A. (2019) Warming trends in summer heatwaves. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 . doi:10.1029/2018GL081004
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081004
Abstract
The frequency and severity of heatwaves is expected to increase as the global climate warms. We apply crossing theory for the first time to determine heatwave properties solely from the distribution of daily observations without time‐correlation information. We use Central England Temperature timeseries to quantify how the simple increased occurrence of higher temperatures makes heatwaves (consecutive summer days with temperatures exceeding a threshold) more frequent and intense. We find an overall 2‐3‐fold increase in heatwave activity since the late 1800's. Week‐long heatwaves that on average return every 5 years were typically below ∼28°C and now typically exceed it. Our analysis takes as inputs average user‐specific heatwave properties. Its output pinpoints the range of temperatures for which changes in the distribution must be well‐resolved statistically in order to track how these heatwave properties are changing. This provides a quantitative benchmark for models used for the attribution of heatwaves.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | Q Science > QC Physics | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Physics | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Heat waves (Meteorology), Climatic changes | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Geophysical Research Letters | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Publisher: | American Geophysical Union | |||||||||||||||||||||
| ISSN: | 0094-8276 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Official Date: | 2019 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 46 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1029/2018GL081004 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Publisher Statement: | Accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters. Copyright 2019 American Geophysical Union. Further reproduction or electronic distribution is not permitted. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Copyright Holders: | American Geophysical Union | |||||||||||||||||||||
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