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Vote expectations versus vote intentions : rival forecasting strategies
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Murr, Andreas , Stegmaier, Mary and Lewis-Beck, Michael S. (2021) Vote expectations versus vote intentions : rival forecasting strategies. British Journal of Political Science, 51 (1). pp. 60-67. doi:10.1017/S0007123419000061
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123419000061
Abstract
Are ordinary citizens better at predicting election results than conventional voter intention polls? We address this question by comparing eight forecasting models for British general elections: one based on voters’ expectations of who will win and seven based on who voters themselves intend to vote for (including “uniform national swing model” and “cube rule” models). The data come from ComRes and Gallup polls as well as the Essex Continuous Monitoring Surveys, 1950 – 2017, yielding 449 months with both expectation and intention polls. The large sample size allows us to compare the models’ prediction accuracy not just in the months prior to the election, but over the years leading up to it. In predicting both the winning party and parties’ seat shares, we find that vote expectations outperform vote intent ions models. Vote expectations thus appear an excellent tool for predicting the winning party and its seat share.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HM Sociology J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) > JN101 Great Britain |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Politics and International Studies | ||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Election forecasting -- Great Britain, Public opinion polls | ||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | British Journal of Political Science | ||||||||
| Publisher: | Cambridge University Press | ||||||||
| ISSN: | 0007-1234 | ||||||||
| Official Date: | January 2021 | ||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 51 | ||||||||
| Number: | 1 | ||||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 60-67 | ||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1017/S0007123419000061 | ||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
| Reuse Statement (publisher, data, author rights): | This article has been accepted for publication in a revised form for publication in British Journal of Political Science https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-political-science | ||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||||
| Copyright Holders: | Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2019 | ||||||||
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