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Democratic reform and health : interpreting causal estimates
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Watson, Samuel I. (2016) Democratic reform and health : interpreting causal estimates. Lancet Global Health, 4 (12). PE904. doi:10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30260-1
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30260-1
Abstract
In The Lancet Global Health, Hannah Pieters and colleagues (September, 2016)1 analyse the effect of democratic reforms on child mortality across the world. We wish to highlight, however, that even with sophisticated causal inference techniques, such results cannot necessarily be interpreted as causal effects.
First, the results are compatible with a number of different theories including that democratic reforms have no effect on health ceteris paribus (ie, holding everything else fixed). Consider the cases of South Africa, Zambia, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe, all notably missing from the analyses but experiencing substantial democratic changes, analysed here using a similar synthetic control analysis (figure).1, 2 No change is observed in South Africa after the end of apartheid in 1994. In Zambia, after reform in 1991, a reduction is observed but not until the price of copper tripled and GDP per capita doubled. In Mozambique, the large fall is likely attributable to the cessation of the civil war in 1993. And in Zimbabwe, democratic restrictions in 1987 did not precipitate an increase in child mortality.
Item Type: | Journal Item | ||||||
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Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory | ||||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Medicine > Warwick Medical School > Health Sciences > Population, Evidence & Technologies (PET) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Medicine > Warwick Medical School |
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Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Children -- Mortality -- Political aspects | ||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Lancet Global Health | ||||||
Publisher: | The Lancet Publishing Group | ||||||
ISSN: | 2214-109X | ||||||
Official Date: | 1 December 2016 | ||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 4 | ||||||
Number: | 12 | ||||||
Article Number: | PE904 | ||||||
DOI: | 10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30260-1 | ||||||
Status: | Not Peer Reviewed | ||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 20 February 2019 | ||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 20 February 2019 | ||||||
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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