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Affective responses to uncertain real-world outcomes : sentiment change on Twitter
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Bhatia, Sudeep, Mellers, Barbara and Walasek, Lukasz (2019) Affective responses to uncertain real-world outcomes : sentiment change on Twitter. PLoS One, 14 (2). e0212489. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0212489 ISSN 1932-6203.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0212489
Abstract
We use data from Twitter.com to study the interplay between affect and expectations about uncertain outcomes. In two studies, we obtained tweets about candidates in the 2014 US Senate elections and tweets about National Football League (NFL) teams in the 2014/2015 NFL season. We chose these events because a) their outcomes are highly uncertain and b) they attract a lot of attention and feature heavily in the communication on social media. We also obtained a priori expectations for the events from political forecasting and sport betting websites. Using this quasi-experimental design, we found that unexpected events are associated with more intense affect than expected events. Moreover, the effect of expectations is larger for outcomes that fall below expectations than outcomes that exceed expectations. Our results are consistent with fundamental principles in psychological science, such as reference-dependence in experienced affect. We discuss how naturally occurring online data can be used to test psychological predictions and develop novel psychological insights.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||
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Subjects: | B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology H Social Sciences > HM Sociology |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Psychology | ||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Affect (Psychology), Twitter (Firm) -- Psychological aspects, United States. Congress. Senate, National Football League | ||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | PLoS One | ||||||
Publisher: | Public Library of Science | ||||||
ISSN: | 1932-6203 | ||||||
Official Date: | 27 February 2019 | ||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 14 | ||||||
Number: | 2 | ||||||
Article Number: | e0212489 | ||||||
DOI: | 10.1371/journal.pone.0212489 | ||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 22 February 2019 | ||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 25 February 2019 | ||||||
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