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Likelihood-free inference via classification

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Gutmann, Michael U., Dutta, Ritabrata, Kaski, Samuel and Corander, Jukka (2018) Likelihood-free inference via classification. Statistics and Computing, 28 (2). pp. 411-425. doi:10.1007/s11222-017-9738-6 ISSN 0960-3174.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11222-017-9738-6

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Abstract

Increasingly complex generative models are being used across disciplines as they allow for realistic characterization of data, but a common difficulty with them is the prohibitively large computational cost to evaluate the likelihood function and thus to perform likelihood-based statistical inference. A likelihood-free inference framework has emerged where the parameters are identified by finding values that yield simulated data resembling the observed data. While widely applicable, a major difficulty in this framework is how to measure the discrepancy between the simulated and observed data. Transforming the original problem into a problem of classifying the data into simulated versus observed, we find that classification accuracy can be used to assess the discrepancy. The complete arsenal of classification methods becomes thereby available for inference of intractable generative models. We validate our approach using theory and simulations for both point estimation and Bayesian inference, and demonstrate its use on real data by inferring an individual-based epidemiological model for bacterial infections in child care centers.

Item Type: Journal Article
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics
Journal or Publication Title: Statistics and Computing
Publisher: Springer
ISSN: 0960-3174
Official Date: March 2018
Dates:
DateEvent
March 2018Published
13 March 2017Available
28 February 2017Accepted
Volume: 28
Number: 2
Page Range: pp. 411-425
DOI: 10.1007/s11222-017-9738-6
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access (Creative Commons)

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