Skip to content Skip to navigation
University of Warwick
  • Study
  • |
  • Research
  • |
  • Business
  • |
  • Alumni
  • |
  • News
  • |
  • About

University of Warwick
Publications service & WRAP

Highlight your research

  • WRAP
    • Home
    • Search WRAP
    • Browse by Warwick Author
    • Browse WRAP by Year
    • Browse WRAP by Subject
    • Browse WRAP by Department
    • Browse WRAP by Funder
    • Browse Theses by Department
  • Publications Service
    • Home
    • Search Publications Service
    • Browse by Warwick Author
    • Browse Publications service by Year
    • Browse Publications service by Subject
    • Browse Publications service by Department
    • Browse Publications service by Funder
  • Help & Advice
University of Warwick

The Library

  • Login
  • Admin

Quantifying age and model uncertainties in palaeoclimate data and dynamical climate models with a joint inferential inferential analysis

Tools
- Tools
+ Tools

Carson, Jake, Crucifix, Michel, Preston, Simon and Wilkinson, Richard (2019) Quantifying age and model uncertainties in palaeoclimate data and dynamical climate models with a joint inferential inferential analysis. Proceedings of the Royal Society A : Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 475 (2224). doi:10.1098/rspa.2018.0854

[img]
Preview
PDF
WRAP-quantifying-age-model-uncertainties-palaeoclimate-data-dynamical-climate-models-Carson-2019.pdf - Accepted Version - Requires a PDF viewer.

Download (1078Kb) | Preview
[img] PDF
WRAP-quantifying-age-model-uncertainties-palaeoclimate-data-dynamical-climate-Carson-2019.pdf - Published Version
Embargoed item. Restricted access to Repository staff only - Requires a PDF viewer.

Download (802Kb)
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2018.0854

Request Changes to record.

Abstract

The study of palaeoclimates relies on information sampled in natural archives such as deep sea cores. Scientific investigations often use such information in multi-stage analyses, typically with an age model being fitted to a core to convert depths into ages at stage one. These age estimates are then used as inputs to develop, calibrate, or select climate models in a second stage of analysis. Here we show that such multi-stage approaches can lead to misleading conclusions, and develop a joint inferential approach for climate reconstruction, model calibration, and age estimation. As an illustration, we investigate the glacial-interglacial cycle, fitting both an age model and dynamical climate model to two benthic sediment cores spanning the past 780 kyr. To show the danger of a multi-stage analysis we sample ages from the posterior distribution, then perform model selection conditional on the sampled age estimates, mimicking standard practice. Doing so repeatedly for different samples leads to model selection conclusions that are substantially different from each other, and from the joint inferential analysis. We conclude that multistage analyses are insufficient when dealing with uncertainty, and that to draw sound conclusions the full joint inferential analysis should be performed.

Item Type: Journal Article
Divisions: Faculty of Science > Statistics
Journal or Publication Title: Proceedings of the Royal Society A : Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Publisher: Royal Society Publishing
ISSN: 1364-5021
Official Date: 17 April 2019
Dates:
DateEvent
17 April 2019Published
7 March 2019Accepted
Volume: 475
Number: 2224
DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2018.0854
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Restricted or Subscription Access
Related URLs:
  • Publisher

Request changes or add full text files to a record

Repository staff actions (login required)

View Item View Item
twitter

Email us: wrap@warwick.ac.uk
Contact Details
About Us