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Quantitative impacts of incubation phase transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus

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Arzt, Jonathan, Branan, Matthew A., Delgado, Amy H., Yadav, Shankar, Moreno-Torres, Karla I., Tildesley, Michael J. and Stenfeldt, Carolina (2019) Quantitative impacts of incubation phase transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus. Scientific Reports, 9 (1). 2707. doi:10.1038/s41598-019-39029-0

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-39029-0

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Abstract

The current investigation applied a Bayesian modeling approach to a unique experimental transmission study to estimate the occurrence of transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) during the incubation phase amongst group-housed pigs. The primary outcome was that transmission occurred approximately one day prior to development of visible signs of disease (posterior median 21 hours, 95% CI: 1.1–45.0). Updated disease state durations were incorporated into a simulation model to examine the importance of addressing preclinical transmission in the face of robust response measures. Simulation of FMD outbreaks in the US pig production sector demonstrated that including a preclinical infectious period of one day would result in a 40% increase in the median number of farms affected (166 additional farms and 664,912 pigs euthanized) compared to the scenario of no preclinical transmission, assuming suboptimal outbreak response. These findings emphasize the importance of considering transmission of FMD during the incubation phase in modeling and response planning.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR355 Virology
S Agriculture > SF Animal culture
Divisions: Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- )
Faculty of Science > Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Foot-and-mouth disease, Agricultural virology
Journal or Publication Title: Scientific Reports
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
ISSN: 2045-2322
Official Date: 25 January 2019
Dates:
DateEvent
25 January 2019Published
4 January 2019Accepted
Volume: 9
Number: 1
Article Number: 2707
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-39029-0
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
ARS-CRIS Project 1940-32000-057-00DU.S. Department of Agriculturehttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000199
UNSPECIFIEDAgricultural Research Servicehttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100007917
HSHQDC-11-X-00189U.S. Department of Homeland Securityhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000180
UNSPECIFIED[DOE] U.S. Department of Energyhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000015

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