UNSPECIFIED (2001) Modelling fundamentals for forecasting capital flows to emerging markets. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, 6 (3). pp. 201-216. ISSN 1076-9307

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Abstract

In this paper. we provide capital flow forecasts to 32 developing countries using a vector error correction framework based on underlying domestic (pull) fundamentals and international (push) factors. In general, pull factors have a heavier weight in determining these capital flows. However, short-term dynamics of capital flows can be significantly influenced by external developments. Simulations under various economic scenarios show that while financial variables (such as the US interest rate and high-yield spread) are important, real US activity may be even more potent in influencing capital flow movements. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Journal or Publication Title:	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS
Publisher:	JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD
ISSN:	1076-9307
Date:	July 2001
Volume:	6
Number:	3
Number of Pages:	16
Page Range:	pp. 201-216
Publication Status:	Published
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/11891

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