Modelling fundamentals for forecasting capital flows to emerging markets
UNSPECIFIED. (2001) Modelling fundamentals for forecasting capital flows to emerging markets. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, 6 (3). pp. 201-216. ISSN 1076-9307Full text not available from this repository.
In this paper. we provide capital flow forecasts to 32 developing countries using a vector error correction framework based on underlying domestic (pull) fundamentals and international (push) factors. In general, pull factors have a heavier weight in determining these capital flows. However, short-term dynamics of capital flows can be significantly influenced by external developments. Simulations under various economic scenarios show that while financial variables (such as the US interest rate and high-yield spread) are important, real US activity may be even more potent in influencing capital flow movements. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Subjects:||H Social Sciences > HG Finance|
|Journal or Publication Title:||INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS|
|Publisher:||JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD|
|Official Date:||July 2001|
|Number of Pages:||16|
|Page Range:||pp. 201-216|
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