Jacks, David S. (David Steven) and Novy, Dennis (2019) Trade blocs and trade wars during the interwar period. Working Paper. Coventry: University of Warwick. Department of Economics. Warwick economics research papers series (WERPS) (1197). (Unpublished)

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Abstract

What precisely were the causes and consequences of the trade wars in the 1930s? Were there perhaps deeper forces at work in reorienting global trade prior to the outbreak of World War II? And what lessons may this particular historical episode provide for the present day? To answer these questions, we distinguish between long-run secular trends in the period from 1920 to 1939 related to the formation of trade blocs (in particular, the British Commonwealth) and short-run disruptions associated with the trade wars of the 1930s (in particular, large and widespread declines in bilateral trade, the narrowing of trade imbalances, and sharp drops in average traded distances). We argue that the trade wars mainly served to intensify pre-existing efforts towards the formation of trade blocs which dated from at least 1920. More speculatively, we argue that the trade wars of the present day may serve a similar purpose as those in the 1930s, that is, the intensification of China- and US-centric trade blocs.

Item Type:	Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HF Commerce
Divisions:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Trade blocs, International trade , International economic relations, International economic relations -- History
Series Name:	Warwick economics research papers series (WERPS)
Publisher:	University of Warwick. Department of Economics
Place of Publication:	Coventry
ISSN:	0083-7350
Official Date:	June 2019
Dates:	Date Event June 2019 Published
Number:	1197
Number of Pages:	27
Institution:	University of Warwick
Status:	Not Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Unpublished
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit:	14 May 2019
Date of first compliant Open Access:	15 May 2019
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:	Project/Grant ID RIOXX Funder Name Funder ID ES/P00766X/1 [ESRC] Economic and Social Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000269 CAGE, ESRC grant ES/L011719/1 University of Warwick http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000741 UNSPECIFIED Nihon Keizai Kenkyū Sentā http://viaf.org/viaf/144179647

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