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Assessing theoretical conclusions with blinded inference to investigate a potential inference crisis

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Starns, Jeffrey J., Cataldo, Andrea M., Rotello, Caren M., Annis, Jeffrey, Aschenbrenner, Andrew, Broder, Arndt, Cox, Gregory, Criss, Amy, Curl, Ryan A., Dobbins, Ian G. et al.
(2019) Assessing theoretical conclusions with blinded inference to investigate a potential inference crisis. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 2 (4). pp. 335-349. doi:10.1177/2515245919869583

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1177/2515245919869583

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Abstract

Scientific advances across a range of disciplines hinge on the ability to make inferences about unobservable theoretical entities on the basis of empirical data patterns. Accurate inferences rely on both discovering valid, replicable data patterns and accurately interpreting those patterns in terms of their implications for theoretical constructs. The replication crisis in science has led to widespread efforts to improve the reliability of research findings, but comparatively little attention has been devoted to the validity of inferences based on those findings. Using an example from cognitive psychology, we demonstrate a blinded-inference paradigm for assessing the quality of theoretical inferences from data. Our results reveal substantial variability in experts’ judgments on the very same data, hinting at a possible inference crisis.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BC Logic
B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology
Divisions: Faculty of Science > Psychology
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Inference , Cognitive psychology , Signal detection (Psychology)
Journal or Publication Title: Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science
Publisher: Sage Publications
ISSN: 2515-2459
Official Date: 1 December 2019
Dates:
DateEvent
1 December 2019Published
17 September 2019Available
13 June 2019Accepted
Volume: 2
Number: 4
Page Range: pp. 335-349
DOI: 10.1177/2515245919869583
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Publisher Statement: Posted ahead of print. Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Reprinted by permission of SAGE Publications. DOI: [DOI]
Access rights to Published version: Restricted or Subscription Access
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