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Predicting and comparing long-term measles antibody profiles of different immunization policies
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UNSPECIFIED (2001) Predicting and comparing long-term measles antibody profiles of different immunization policies. BULLETIN OF THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION, 79 (7). pp. 615-624. ISSN 0042-9686.
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Abstract
Objective Measles outbreaks are infrequent and localized in areas with high coverage of measles vaccine. The need is to assess long-term effectiveness of coverage. Since 1991, no measles epidemic affecting the whole island has occurred in Taiwan, China. Epidemiological models are developed to predict the long-term measles antibody profiles and compare the merits of different immunization policies on the island.
Methods The current measles immunization policy in Taiwan, China, is 1 dose of measles vaccine at 9 months of age and 1 dose of measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine at 15 months of age, plus a 'mop-up' of MMR-unvaccinated schoolchildren at 6 years of age. Refinements involve a change to a two-dose strategy. Five scenarios based on different vaccination strategies are compared. The models are analysed using Microsoft Excel.
Findings First, making the assumption that measles vaccine-induced immunity will not wane, the predicted measles IgG seroprevalences in preschool children range from? 81% (lower bound) to 94% (upper bound) and in schoolchildren reach 97-98% in all strategy scenarios.
Results are dependent on the association of vaccine coverage between the first and second dose of vaccine. Second, if it is assumed that vaccine-induced antibody titres decay, the long-term measles seroprevalence will depend on the initial titres post vaccination, decay rates of antibody titres and cut-off of seropositivity.
Conclusion If MMR coverage at 12 months of age can reach: > 90%, it would be worth changing the current policy to 2 doses at 12 months and 6 years of age to induce higher antibody titres. These epidemiological models could be applied wherever a similar stage of measles elimination has been reached.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subjects: | R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine | ||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | BULLETIN OF THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION | ||||
| Publisher: | WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION | ||||
| ISSN: | 0042-9686 | ||||
| Official Date: | 2001 | ||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 79 | ||||
| Number: | 7 | ||||
| Number of Pages: | 10 | ||||
| Page Range: | pp. 615-624 | ||||
| Publication Status: | Published |
Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge
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