UNSPECIFIED (2001) Hepatitis-B virus endemicity: heterogeneity, catastrophic dynamics and control. Nature, 7 (5). pp. 619-624. ISSN 1078-8956

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Abstract

Hepatitis-B virus infection is globally ubiquitous, but its distribution is very heterogeneous, with prevalence of serological markers in various nations ranging from less than 1% to more than 90%. We propose an explanation for this diversity using a mathematical model of hepatitis-B virus transmission dynamics that shows, for the first time,'catastrophic' behavior using realistic epidemiological processes and parameters. Our major conclusion is that the prevalence of infection is largely determined by a feedback mechanism that relates the rate of transmission, average age at infection and age-related probability of developing carriage following infection. Using the model we identify possible, highly non-linear, consequences of chemotherapy and immunization interventions, for which the starting prevalence of carriers is the most influential, predictive quantity. Taken together, our results demand a re-evaluation of public health policy towards hepatitis-B.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	Q Science > QD Chemistry Q Science > QH Natural history > QH301 Biology R Medicine
Journal or Publication Title:	Nature
Publisher:	NATURE AMERICA INC
ISSN:	1078-8956
Date:	May 2001
Volume:	7
Number:	5
Number of Pages:	6
Page Range:	pp. 619-624
Publication Status:	Published
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/11970

Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge

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