Hepatitis-B virus endemicity: heterogeneity, catastrophic dynamics and control
UNSPECIFIED. (2001) Hepatitis-B virus endemicity: heterogeneity, catastrophic dynamics and control. Nature, 7 (5). pp. 619-624. ISSN 1078-8956Full text not available from this repository.
Hepatitis-B virus infection is globally ubiquitous, but its distribution is very heterogeneous, with prevalence of serological markers in various nations ranging from less than 1% to more than 90%. We propose an explanation for this diversity using a mathematical model of hepatitis-B virus transmission dynamics that shows, for the first time,'catastrophic' behavior using realistic epidemiological processes and parameters. Our major conclusion is that the prevalence of infection is largely determined by a feedback mechanism that relates the rate of transmission, average age at infection and age-related probability of developing carriage following infection. Using the model we identify possible, highly non-linear, consequences of chemotherapy and immunization interventions, for which the starting prevalence of carriers is the most influential, predictive quantity. Taken together, our results demand a re-evaluation of public health policy towards hepatitis-B.
|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Subjects:||Q Science > QD Chemistry
Q Science > QH Natural history > QH301 Biology
|Journal or Publication Title:||Nature|
|Publisher:||NATURE AMERICA INC|
|Official Date:||May 2001|
|Number of Pages:||6|
|Page Range:||pp. 619-624|
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