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Is the UK productivity slowdown unprecedented?

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Crafts, Nicholas and Mills, Terence C. (2019) Is the UK productivity slowdown unprecedented? Working Paper. Coventry: University of Warwick. Department of Economics. Warwick economics research papers series (WERPS) (1215). (Unpublished)

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Official URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/w...

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Abstract

We estimate trend UK labour productivity growth using a Hodrick-Prescott filter method. We use the results to compare downturns where the economy fell below its pre-existing trend. We find that the current productivity slowdown has resulted in productivity being 19.7% below the pre-2008 trend path in 2018. This is nearly double the previous worst productivity short fall ten years after the start of a downturn. On this criterion the slow down is unprecedented in the last 250 years. We conjecture that this reflects a combination of adverse circumstances, namely, a financial crisis, a weakening impact of ICT and impending Brexit.

Item Type: Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): International economic relations, Financial crises -- Great Britain, Labor productivity -- Great Britain, Industrial productivity -- Great Britain
Series Name: Warwick economics research papers series (WERPS)
Publisher: University of Warwick. Department of Economics
Place of Publication: Coventry
ISSN: 0083-7350
Official Date: July 2019
Dates:
DateEvent
July 2019Published
Number: 1215
Number of Pages: 10
Institution: University of Warwick
Status: Not Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Unpublished
Access rights to Published version: Open Access (Creative Commons)
Description:

This paper also appears as CAGE Discussion paper 429

Date of first compliant deposit: 22 July 2019
Date of first compliant Open Access: 24 July 2019

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