Crafts, Nicholas and Mills, Terence C. (2019) Is the UK productivity slowdown unprecedented? Working Paper. Coventry: University of Warwick. Department of Economics. Warwick economics research papers series (WERPS) (1215). (Unpublished)

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Abstract

We estimate trend UK labour productivity growth using a Hodrick-Prescott filter method. We use the results to compare downturns where the economy fell below its pre-existing trend. We find that the current productivity slowdown has resulted in productivity being 19.7% below the pre-2008 trend path in 2018. This is nearly double the previous worst productivity short fall ten years after the start of a downturn. On this criterion the slow down is unprecedented in the last 250 years. We conjecture that this reflects a combination of adverse circumstances, namely, a financial crisis, a weakening impact of ICT and impending Brexit.

Item Type:	Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	International economic relations, Financial crises -- Great Britain, Labor productivity -- Great Britain, Industrial productivity -- Great Britain
Series Name:	Warwick economics research papers series (WERPS)
Publisher:	University of Warwick. Department of Economics
Place of Publication:	Coventry
ISSN:	0083-7350
Official Date:	July 2019
Dates:	Date Event July 2019 Published
Number:	1215
Number of Pages:	10
Institution:	University of Warwick
Status:	Not Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Unpublished
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access
Description:	This paper also appears as CAGE Discussion paper 429

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