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Is the UK productivity slowdown unprecedented?
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Crafts, Nicholas and Mills, Terence C. (2019) Is the UK productivity slowdown unprecedented? Working Paper. Coventry: University of Warwick. Department of Economics. Warwick economics research papers series (WERPS) (1215). (Unpublished)
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Official URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/w...
Abstract
We estimate trend UK labour productivity growth using a Hodrick-Prescott filter method. We use the results to compare downturns where the economy fell below its pre-existing trend. We find that the current productivity slowdown has resulted in productivity being 19.7% below the pre-2008 trend path in 2018. This is nearly double the previous worst productivity short fall ten years after the start of a downturn. On this criterion the slow down is unprecedented in the last 250 years. We conjecture that this reflects a combination of adverse circumstances, namely, a financial crisis, a weakening impact of ICT and impending Brexit.
| Item Type: | Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper) | ||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor H Social Sciences > HG Finance |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics | ||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | International economic relations, Financial crises -- Great Britain, Labor productivity -- Great Britain, Industrial productivity -- Great Britain | ||||
| Series Name: | Warwick economics research papers series (WERPS) | ||||
| Publisher: | University of Warwick. Department of Economics | ||||
| Place of Publication: | Coventry | ||||
| ISSN: | 0083-7350 | ||||
| Official Date: | July 2019 | ||||
| Dates: |
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| Date of first compliant deposit: | 22 July 2019 | ||||
| Number: | 1215 | ||||
| Number of Pages: | 10 | ||||
| Institution: | University of Warwick | ||||
| Status: | Not Peer Reviewed | ||||
| Publication Status: | Unpublished | ||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access | ||||
| Description: | This paper also appears as CAGE Discussion paper 429 |
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