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Preparing for the new oil order? Saudi Arabia and Russia

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Bradshaw, Michael J., Van de Graaf, Thijs and Connolly, Richard (2019) Preparing for the new oil order? Saudi Arabia and Russia. Energy Strategy Reviews, 26 . 100374. doi:10.1016/j.esr.2019.100374 ISSN 2211-467X.

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Official URL: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2019.100374

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Abstract

The COP24 meeting in Katowice, Poland, made clear the divisions between the winners and losers of a low-carbon energy transition. The IPCC's 1.5 °C report shows that climate change mitigation must see an early peak in oil demand and a rapid fall in consumption thereafter. The ‘shale revolution’ and the falling cost and rapid deployment of renewable energy are laying the foundations of a ‘new oil order’ that threatens the prosperity of oil exporting economies. A review of forecasts and scenarios reveals significant uncertainty surrounding the dynamics of future oil demand. This provides the backdrop for a comparative analysis of the world's largest oil exporters: Saudi Arabia and Russia. Saudi Arabia is shown to be concerned to maintain oil revenues to finance its ‘2030 vision’ to diversify its economy. Russia, by comparison, shows no such ambition, rather it seems determined to increase its reliance on the oil and gas sectors. The conclusions suggest that fossil fuel exporters must act now to prepare for the low carbon transition and that a failure to do so could result in tensions and conflicts that could undermine the collective action required to address climate change.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: T Technology > TP Chemical technology
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School > Strategy & International Business
Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Fossil fuels, Fossil fuels -- Environmental aspects, Fossil fuels -- Economic aspects, Climatic changes -- Government policy
Journal or Publication Title: Energy Strategy Reviews
Publisher: Elsevier Inc.
ISSN: 2211-467X
Official Date: November 2019
Dates:
DateEvent
November 2019Published
18 July 2019Available
23 June 2019Accepted
Volume: 26
Article Number: 100374
DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2019.100374
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit: 29 July 2019
Date of first compliant Open Access: 30 July 2019
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
EPSRC EP/L024756/1Research Councils UKhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000690
NE/G007748/1[NERC] Natural Environment Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000270

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