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Preparing for the new oil order? Saudi Arabia and Russia
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Bradshaw, Michael J., Van de Graaf, Thijs and Connolly, Richard (2019) Preparing for the new oil order? Saudi Arabia and Russia. Energy Strategy Reviews, 26 . 100374. doi:10.1016/j.esr.2019.100374 ISSN 2211-467X.
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WRAP-preparting-new-oil-order-Saudi-Arabia-Russia-Bradsahaw-2019.pdf - Published Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0. Download (691Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2019.100374
Abstract
The COP24 meeting in Katowice, Poland, made clear the divisions between the winners and losers of a low-carbon energy transition. The IPCC's 1.5 °C report shows that climate change mitigation must see an early peak in oil demand and a rapid fall in consumption thereafter. The ‘shale revolution’ and the falling cost and rapid deployment of renewable energy are laying the foundations of a ‘new oil order’ that threatens the prosperity of oil exporting economies. A review of forecasts and scenarios reveals significant uncertainty surrounding the dynamics of future oil demand. This provides the backdrop for a comparative analysis of the world's largest oil exporters: Saudi Arabia and Russia. Saudi Arabia is shown to be concerned to maintain oil revenues to finance its ‘2030 vision’ to diversify its economy. Russia, by comparison, shows no such ambition, rather it seems determined to increase its reliance on the oil and gas sectors. The conclusions suggest that fossil fuel exporters must act now to prepare for the low carbon transition and that a failure to do so could result in tensions and conflicts that could undermine the collective action required to address climate change.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||
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| Subjects: | T Technology > TP Chemical technology | |||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School > Strategy & International Business Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School |
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| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Fossil fuels, Fossil fuels -- Environmental aspects, Fossil fuels -- Economic aspects, Climatic changes -- Government policy | |||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Energy Strategy Reviews | |||||||||
| Publisher: | Elsevier Inc. | |||||||||
| ISSN: | 2211-467X | |||||||||
| Official Date: | November 2019 | |||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 26 | |||||||||
| Article Number: | 100374 | |||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.esr.2019.100374 | |||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | |||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 29 July 2019 | |||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 30 July 2019 | |||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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