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Incorporating FAIR into Bayesian network for numerical assessment of loss event frequencies of smart grid cyber threats

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Le, Anhtuan, Chen, Yue-Qin, Chai, Kok Keong, Vasenev, Alexandr and Montoya, Lorena (2018) Incorporating FAIR into Bayesian network for numerical assessment of loss event frequencies of smart grid cyber threats. Mobile Networks and Applications, 1 . pp. 1-9. 11036. doi:10.1007/s11036-018-1047-6

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Abstract

In today’s cyber world, assessing security threats before implementing smart grids is essential to identify and mitigate the
risks. Loss Event Frequency (LEF) is a concept provided by the well-known Factor Analysis of Information Risk (FAIR)
framework to assess and categorize the cyber threats into five classes, based on their severity. As the number of threats is
increasing, it is possible that many threats might fall under the same LEF category, but FAIR cannot provide any further
mechanism to rank them. In this paper, we propose a method to incorporate the FAIR’s LEF into Bayesian Network (BN) to
derive the numerical assessments to rank the threat severity. The BN probabilistic relations are inferred from the FAIR lookup tables to reflect and conserve the FAIR appraisal. Our approach extends FAIR functionality by providing a more detailed
ranking, allowing fuzzy inputs, enabling the illustration of input-output relations, and identifying the most influential element
of a threat to improve the effectiveness of countermeasure investment. Such improvements are demonstrated by applying
the method to assess cyber threats in a smart grid robustness research project (IRENE).

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
H Social Sciences > HV Social pathology. Social and public welfare
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76 Electronic computers. Computer science. Computer software
T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Engineering > WMG (Formerly the Warwick Manufacturing Group)
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Cyberterrorism , Cyber intelligence (Computer security), Smart power grids , Risk management, Data protection, Computer security, Electric power system stability
Journal or Publication Title: Mobile Networks and Applications
Publisher: Springer
ISSN: 1383-469X
Official Date: 1 September 2018
Dates:
DateEvent
1 September 2018Available
1 March 2018Accepted
Volume: 1
Page Range: pp. 1-9
Article Number: 11036
DOI: 10.1007/s11036-018-1047-6
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access
Copyright Holders: © The Author(s) 2018
Open Access Version:
  • https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10...

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