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Insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling on the proposed 2030 goals for yaws
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Dyson, Louise, Mooring, Eric Q., Holmes, Alexander, Tildesley, Michael J. and Marks, Michael (2019) Insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling on the proposed 2030 goals for yaws. Gates Open Research, 3 . 1576. doi:doi:10.12688/gatesopenres.13078.1 (Submitted)
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/gatesopenres.13078.1
Abstract
The World Health Organization is currently developing 2030 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In these, yaws has been targeted for eradication by 2030, with 50% of member states certified free of yaws transmission by 2023. Here we summarise the yaws modelling literature and discuss the proposed goal and strategy. The current Morges strategy involves rounds of Total Community Treatment (TCT), in which all members of the community are treated, and Total Targeted Treatment (TTT), treating active cases and their contacts. However, modelling and empirical work suggest that latent infections are often not found in the same household as active cases, reducing the utility of household-based contact tracing for a TTT strategy. Economic modelling has also discovered uncertainty in the cost of eradication, requiring further data to give greater information. We also note the need for improved active surveillance in previously endemic countries, in order to plan future intervention efforts and ensure global eradication.
Keywords
| Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||
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| Subjects: | R Medicine > RC Internal medicine | |||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science > Mathematics |
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| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Yaws , Yaws -- Mathematical models, Tropical medicine -- Mathematical models | |||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Gates Open Research | |||||||||
| Publisher: | F1000Research | |||||||||
| ISSN: | 2572-4754 | |||||||||
| Official Date: | 16 October 2019 | |||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Date of first compliant deposit: | 16 December 2019 | |||||||||
| Volume: | 3 | |||||||||
| Article Number: | 1576 | |||||||||
| DOI: | doi:10.12688/gatesopenres.13078.1 | |||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||
| Publication Status: | Submitted | |||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access | |||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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