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Multimodality, uncertainty and aggregation

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Brus, Tomek (1985) Multimodality, uncertainty and aggregation. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.

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Official URL: http://webcat.warwick.ac.uk/record=b1445506~S15

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Abstract

The prime purpose of this thesis is to devise a method for aggregating beliefs in decision situations involving conflict. In the process of conducting this investigation it has been found that a completely fresh approach to interpreting and modelling uncertainty is required.

The major mathematical tool employed throughout this work is Catastrophe Theory. The relevant aspects of this subject are presented in the first chapter and are repeatedly used in the three main sections of the thesis.

A considerable part of the work is concerned with the new way of eliciting statements about beliefs. A number of illustrations is included in order to provide an intuitive feel for this interpretation of probability. The proposed method gives a basis for an aggregation scheme. Catastrophe Theory provides the framework for constructing aggregation rules sensitive to aspects like conflict, grouping and precision of information. Some particular models are described in detail.

In another section the geometry of a certain type of mixtures is analysed. Mixtures can be used for modelling aggregation problems and their main properties are discussed.

Item Type: Thesis or Dissertation (PhD)
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Catastrophes (Mathematics), Uncertainty -- Mathematical models, Aggregation operators
Official Date: June 1985
Dates:
DateEvent
June 1985UNSPECIFIED
Institution: University of Warwick
Theses Department: Department of Statistics
Thesis Type: PhD
Publication Status: Unpublished
Supervisor(s)/Advisor: Harrison, P. J.
Sponsors: Sussex European Research Centre ; University of Warwick
Format of File: pdf
Extent: [vi], 156 leaves
Language: eng

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