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Sovereign debt default: the impact of creditor composition

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Dhillon, Amrita, García Fronti, Javier I. and Zhang, Lei, Dr. (2009) Sovereign debt default: the impact of creditor composition. Working Paper. University of Warwick, Department of Economics, Coventry.

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Abstract

The main motivation of this paper is to study the impact of the composition of creditors on the probability of default and the risk premium on sovereign bonds, when there is debtor moral hazard. In the absence of any legal enforcement, relational contracts work only when there are creditors who have a repeated relationship with the borrower. We show that ownership structures with a larger fraction of long term lenders are associated with a lower default probability and lower risk premia. Moreover, competitive markets structures lead to loss in efficiency as well when there is moral hazard, in contrast to the case with perfect enforceability and information.

Item Type: Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HJ Public Finance
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Debts, Public, Debtor and creditor, Expenditures, Public, Contracts -- Economic aspects
Series Name: Warwick economic research papers
Publisher: University of Warwick, Department of Economics
Place of Publication: Coventry
Date: March 2009
Number: No.901
Number of Pages: 21
Status: Not Peer Reviewed
Access rights to Published version: Open Access
Funder: Economic and Social Research Council (Great Britain) (ESRC)
Grant number: RES-165-25-0006 (ESRC), RES- 165-25-0006 (ESRC)
References: Bulow, J., and K. Rogoff (1989): “A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt,” Journal of Political Economy, 97(1), 155–178. Cole, H. L., and P. J. Kehoe (1995): “The role of institutions in reputational models of sovereign Debt ,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 35(1), 45–64. Dhillon, A., J. Garc´ıa-Fronti, S. Ghosal, and M. Miller (2006): “Debt Restructuring and Economic Recovery: Analysing the Argentine Swap,” The World Economy, 29(4), 377. Drelichman, M., and H.-J. Voth (2008): “Lending to the Borrower from Hell: Default in the age of Philip II, 1556-1598,” Manuscript, University of British Columbia. Eaton, J. (1996): “Sovereign Debt, Reputation and Credit Terms,” International Journal of Finance and Economics, 1, 25–35. Eaton, J., and M. Gersovitz (1981): “Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theory and Estimation,” Review of Economic Studies, 48(2), 289–309. Fernandez, R., and R. Rosenthal (1990): “Strategic Models of Sovereign-Debt Renegotiations,” Review of Economic Studies, 57(3), 331–349. Hellman, Thomas.F.and Murdock, K., and J. Stiglitz (2000): “Liberalization, Moral Hazard in Banking, and Prudential Regulation: Are Capital Requirements Enough?,” American Economic Review, 90(1), 147–165. Kletzer, K., and B. Wright (2000): “Sovereign Debt as Intertemporal Barter,” American Economic Review, 90(3), 621–39. Kovrijnykh, N., and B. Szentes (2007): “Equilibrium Default Cycles,” Journal of Political Economy, 115(3), 403–46. Sgard, J. (2005): “La Dette Argentine et le D´eclin du FMI,” Lettre du CEPI. Sturzenegger, F., and J. Zettelmeyer (2006): “Has the Legal Threat to Sovereign Debt Restructuring Become Real?,” Manuscript, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Wright, M. (2002): “Reputations and Sovereign Debt,” Manuscript, Stanford University. Wright, M. (2005): “Coordinating Creditors,” American Economic Review, 95(2), 388–392.
URI: http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/1316

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