Wright, Sophia K. (2019) Robustness in Bayesian networks. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.

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Abstract

This thesis explores the robustness of large discrete Bayesian networks (BNs) when applied in decision support systems which have a pre-specified subset of target variables. We develop new methodology, underpinned by the total variation distance, to determine whether simplifications which are currently employed in the practical implementation of such systems are theoretically valid. This versatile framework enables us to study the effects of misspecification within a Bayesian network (BN), and also extend the methodology to quantify temporal effects within Dynamic BNs. Unlike current robustness analyses, our new technology can be applied throughout the construction of the BN model; enabling us to create tailored, bespoke models. For illustrative purposes we shall be applying our work to the field of Food Security and a demonstrative ecological network.

Item Type:	Thesis or Dissertation (PhD)
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Bayesian statistical decision theory, Decision support systems, Robust control, Food security
Official Date:	February 2019
Dates:	Date Event February 2019 UNSPECIFIED
Institution:	University of Warwick
Theses Department:	Department of Statistics
Thesis Type:	PhD
Publication Status:	Unpublished
Supervisor(s)/Advisor:	Smith, J. Q., 1953-
Sponsors:	Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
Format of File:	pdf
Extent:	xi, 97 leaves : illustrations
Language:	eng

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