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Is the UK productivity slowdown unprecedented?
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Crafts, Nicholas and Mills, Terence C. (2020) Is the UK productivity slowdown unprecedented? National Institute Economic Review, 251 (2020). R47-R53. doi:10.1017/nie.2020.6
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/nie.2020.6
Abstract
We estimate trend UK labour productivity growth using a Hodrick-Prescott filter method. We use the results to compare downturns where the economy fell below its pre-existing trend. We find that the current productivity slowdown has resulted in productivity being 19.7 per cent below the pre-2008 trend path in 2018. This is nearly double the previous worst productivity shortfall ten years after the start of a downturn. On this criterion the slowdown is unprecedented in the past 250 years. We conjecture that this reflects a combination of adverse circumstances, namely, a financial crisis, a weakening impact of ICT and impending Brexit.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions | ||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics | ||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Labor productivity -- Great Britain, Economic development -- Great Britain -- 21st century, Referendum -- Great Britain -- History -- 21st century, Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009, Telecommunication -- Capital productivity -- Great Britain, Great Britain -- Relations -- European Union countries | ||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | National Institute Economic Review | ||||||||
| Publisher: | Sage Publications Ltd. | ||||||||
| ISSN: | 0027-9501 | ||||||||
| Official Date: | February 2020 | ||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 251 | ||||||||
| Number: | 2020 | ||||||||
| Page Range: | R47-R53 | ||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1017/nie.2020.6 | ||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
| Publisher Statement: | Crafts, Nicholas and Mills, Terence C. (2020) Is the UK productivity slowdown unprecedented? National Institute Economic Review, 251 (2020). R47-R53. doi:10.1017/nie.2020.6. Copyright © National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 2020. Reprinted by permission of SAGE Publications. https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2020.6 | ||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||||
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