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Is the UK productivity slowdown unprecedented?

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Crafts, Nicholas and Mills, Terence C. (2020) Is the UK productivity slowdown unprecedented? National Institute Economic Review, 251 (2020). R47-R53. doi:10.1017/nie.2020.6

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/nie.2020.6

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Abstract

We estimate trend UK labour productivity growth using a Hodrick-Prescott filter method. We use the results to compare downturns where the economy fell below its pre-existing trend. We find that the current productivity slowdown has resulted in productivity being 19.7 per cent below the pre-2008 trend path in 2018. This is nearly double the previous worst productivity shortfall ten years after the start of a downturn. On this criterion the slowdown is unprecedented in the past 250 years. We conjecture that this reflects a combination of adverse circumstances, namely, a financial crisis, a weakening impact of ICT and impending Brexit.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Labor productivity -- Great Britain, Economic development -- Great Britain -- 21st century, Referendum -- Great Britain -- History -- 21st century, Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009, Telecommunication -- Capital productivity -- Great Britain, Great Britain -- Relations -- European Union countries
Journal or Publication Title: National Institute Economic Review
Publisher: Sage Publications Ltd.
ISSN: 0027-9501
Official Date: February 2020
Dates:
DateEvent
February 2020Published
5 February 2020Available
16 January 2020Accepted
Volume: 251
Number: 2020
Page Range: R47-R53
DOI: 10.1017/nie.2020.6
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Publisher Statement: Crafts, Nicholas and Mills, Terence C. (2020) Is the UK productivity slowdown unprecedented? National Institute Economic Review, 251 (2020). R47-R53. doi:10.1017/nie.2020.6. Copyright © National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 2020. Reprinted by permission of SAGE Publications. https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2020.6
Access rights to Published version: Restricted or Subscription Access
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