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Extending Bayesian back-calculation to estimate age and time specific HIV incidence
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Brizzi, Francesco, Birrell, Paul J., Plummer, Martyn, Kirwan, Peter, Brown, Alison E., Delpech, Valerie C., Gill, O. Noel and De Angelis, Daniela (2019) Extending Bayesian back-calculation to estimate age and time specific HIV incidence. Lifetime Data Analysis, 25 (4). pp. 757-780. doi:10.1007/s10985-019-09465-1
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10985-019-09465-1
Abstract
CD4-based multi-state back-calculation methods are key for monitoring the HIV epidemic, providing estimates of HIV incidence and diagnosis rates by disentangling their inter-related contribution to the observed surveillance data. This paper, extends existing approaches to age-specific settings, permitting the joint estimation of age- and time-specific incidence and diagnosis rates and the derivation of other epidemiological quantities of interest. This allows the identification of specific age-groups at higher risk of infection, which is crucial in directing public health interventions. We investigate, through simulation studies, the suitability of various bivariate splines for the non-parametric modelling of the latent age- and time-specific incidence and illustrate our method on routinely collected data from the HIV epidemic among gay and bisexual men in England and Wales.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | R Medicine > R Medicine (General) R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Statistics | ||||||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | HIV infections -- Mathematical models, Public health surveillance -- Statistical methods, Splines, CD4 antigen | ||||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Lifetime Data Analysis | ||||||||||||
| Publisher: | Springer | ||||||||||||
| ISSN: | 1380-7870 | ||||||||||||
| Official Date: | October 2019 | ||||||||||||
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| Date of first compliant deposit: | 29 January 2020 | ||||||||||||
| Volume: | 25 | ||||||||||||
| Number: | 4 | ||||||||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 757-780 | ||||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1007/s10985-019-09465-1 | ||||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access | ||||||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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