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Extending Bayesian back-calculation to estimate age and time specific HIV incidence

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Brizzi, Francesco, Birrell, Paul J., Plummer, Martyn, Kirwan, Peter, Brown, Alison E., Delpech, Valerie C., Gill, O. Noel and De Angelis, Daniela (2019) Extending Bayesian back-calculation to estimate age and time specific HIV incidence. Lifetime Data Analysis, 25 (4). pp. 757-780. doi:10.1007/s10985-019-09465-1 ISSN 1380-7870.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10985-019-09465-1

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Abstract

CD4-based multi-state back-calculation methods are key for monitoring the HIV epidemic, providing estimates of HIV incidence and diagnosis rates by disentangling their inter-related contribution to the observed surveillance data. This paper, extends existing approaches to age-specific settings, permitting the joint estimation of age- and time-specific incidence and diagnosis rates and the derivation of other epidemiological quantities of interest. This allows the identification of specific age-groups at higher risk of infection, which is crucial in directing public health interventions. We investigate, through simulation studies, the suitability of various bivariate splines for the non-parametric modelling of the latent age- and time-specific incidence and illustrate our method on routinely collected data from the HIV epidemic among gay and bisexual men in England and Wales.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: R Medicine > R Medicine (General)
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): HIV infections -- Mathematical models, Public health surveillance -- Statistical methods, Splines, CD4 antigen
Journal or Publication Title: Lifetime Data Analysis
Publisher: Springer
ISSN: 1380-7870
Official Date: October 2019
Dates:
DateEvent
October 2019Published
27 February 2019Available
29 January 2019Accepted
Volume: 25
Number: 4
Page Range: pp. 757-780
DOI: 10.1007/s10985-019-09465-1
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit: 29 January 2020
Date of first compliant Open Access: 29 January 2020
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
MC_UU_00002/11Medical Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265
UNSPECIFIED[NIHR] National Institute for Health Researchhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000272
UNSPECIFIEDPublic Health Englandhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002141

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