First announcements and real economic activity
Clements, Michael P. and Galvão, Ana Beatriz C. (Ana Beatriz Camatari) (2008) First announcements and real economic activity. Working Paper. Coventry: University of Warwick, Department of Economics. Warwick economic research papers (No.885).
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The recent literature suggests that first announcements of real output growth in the US have predictive power for the future course of the economy. We show that this need not point to a behavioural relationship, whereby agents respond to the announcement, but may instead simply be a by-product of the data revision process. Initial estimates are subsequently subject to a number of rounds of revisions: the nature of these revisions is shown to be key in determining any apparent relationship between first announcements and the future course of the economy.
|Item Type:||Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)|
|Subjects:||H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory|
|Divisions:||Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics|
|Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):||Econometric models, Industrial productivity -- United States, Industrial productivity -- Measurement, Economics -- Data processing|
|Series Name:||Warwick economic research papers|
|Publisher:||University of Warwick, Department of Economics|
|Place of Publication:||Coventry|
|Official Date:||18 December 2008|
|Number of Pages:||33|
|Status:||Not Peer Reviewed|
|Access rights to Published version:||Open Access|
Aruoba, S. B. (2008). Data revisions are not well-behaved. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
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