Clements, Michael P. and Galvão, Ana Beatriz C. (Ana Beatriz Camatari) (2008) First announcements and real economic activity. Working Paper. Coventry: University of Warwick, Department of Economics. (Warwick economic research papers.

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Abstract

The recent literature suggests that first announcements of real output growth in the US have predictive power for the future course of the economy. We show that this need not point to a behavioural relationship, whereby agents respond to the announcement, but may instead simply be a by-product of the data revision process. Initial estimates are subsequently subject to a number of rounds of revisions: the nature of these revisions is shown to be key in determining any apparent relationship between first announcements and the future course of the economy.

Item Type:	Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Econometric models, Industrial productivity -- United States, Industrial productivity -- Measurement, Economics -- Data processing
Series Name:	Warwick economic research papers
Publisher:	University of Warwick, Department of Economics
Place of Publication:	Coventry
Date:	18 December 2008
Number:	No.885
Number of Pages:	33
Status:	Not Peer Reviewed
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access
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URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/1332

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