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Four scenarios of the energy transition : drivers, consequences, and implications for geopolitics
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Bazilian, Morgan, Bradshaw, Michael J., Gabriel, Johannes, Goldthau, Andreas and Westphal, Kirsten (2020) Four scenarios of the energy transition : drivers, consequences, and implications for geopolitics. WIREs Climate Change, 11 (2). e625. doi:10.1002/wcc.625
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wcc.625
Abstract
This opinion article offers insights into the geopolitics of the ongoing global energy transition. In doing so, it draws heavily on a workshop in Berlin in late 2018, and a subsequent paper in the journal Nature. Four scenarios are presented. First, the “Big Green Deal” offers a positive story of the future, under the assumption that there will be a multilateral approach to tackling climate change. Second, “Dirty Nationalism” explores the fallout of nations choosing to turn inward and pursue a short‐term, protectionist, and self‐interested agenda. Third, “Technology Breakthrough” illustrates how a technological leap forward could lead to a great power rivalry and distinct regional energy blocs. Finally, “Muddling On” investigates the outcome of an energy transition that reflect business as usual. By comparing and contrasting the different scenarios, the article highlights the potential winners and losers of the different scenarios, and the geopolitical consequences. It also sketches the implications for policy, theory, and scenario thinking more broadly.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor | ||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School | ||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Energy policy, Power resources -- Forecasting, Energy consumption -- Forecasting, Geopolitics, International economic relations | ||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | WIREs Climate Change | ||||||||
| Publisher: | Wiley | ||||||||
| ISSN: | 1757-7780 | ||||||||
| Official Date: | March 2020 | ||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 11 | ||||||||
| Number: | 2 | ||||||||
| Article Number: | e625 | ||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1002/wcc.625 | ||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
| Publisher Statement: | This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Bazilian, Morgan, Bradshaw, Michael J., Gabriel, Johannes, Goldthau, Andreas and Westphal, Kirsten (2020) Four scenarios of the energy transition : drivers, consequences, and implications for geopolitics. WIREs Climate Change, 11 (2). e625, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.625 . This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions." | ||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access |
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