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Effects of regional differences and demography in modelling foot-and-mouth disease in cattle at the national scale
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Tsao, Kimberly, Sellman, Stefan, Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M., Murrieta, Deedra J., Hallman, Clayton, Lindström, Tom, Miller, Ryan S., Portacci, Katie, Tildesley, Michael J. and Webb, Colleen T. (2019) Effects of regional differences and demography in modelling foot-and-mouth disease in cattle at the national scale. Interface Focus, 10 (1). 20190054. doi:10.1098/rsfs.2019.0054 ISSN 2042-8898.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsfs.2019.0054
Abstract
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a fast-spreading viral infection that can produce large and costly outbreaks in livestock populations. Transmission occurs at multiple spatial scales, as can the actions used to control outbreaks. The US cattle industry is spatially expansive, with heterogeneous distributions of animals and infrastructure. We have developed a model that incorporates the effects of scale for both disease transmission and control actions, applied here in simulating FMD outbreaks in US cattle. We simulated infection initiating in each of the 3049 counties in the contiguous US, 100 times per county. When initial infection was located in specific regions, large outbreaks were more likely to occur, driven by infrastructure and other demographic attributes such as premises clustering and number of cattle on premises. Sensitivity analyses suggest these attributes had more impact on outbreak metrics than the ranges of estimated disease parameter values. Additionally, although shipping accounted for a small percentage of overall transmission, areas receiving the most animal shipments tended to have other attributes that increase the probability of large outbreaks. The importance of including spatial and demographic heterogeneity in modelling outbreak trajectories and control actions is illustrated by specific regions consistently producing larger outbreaks than others.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) | ||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Interface Focus | ||||||
Publisher: | The Royal Society Publishing | ||||||
ISSN: | 2042-8898 | ||||||
Official Date: | 13 December 2019 | ||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 10 | ||||||
Number: | 1 | ||||||
Article Number: | 20190054 | ||||||
DOI: | 10.1098/rsfs.2019.0054 | ||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 3 March 2020 | ||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 3 March 2020 |
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