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The indivisible hand of peace? Consumption opportunities and civil war
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Nelson, Phillip (2019) The indivisible hand of peace? Consumption opportunities and civil war. Defence and Peace Economics . pp. 1-17. doi:10.1080/10242694.2019.1703441 (In Press)
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2019.1703441
Abstract
GDP is one of the most robust indicators of civil war onset. As debate continues over the mechanisms underlying the relationship between economic development and civil war, this paper scrutinizes the indicator of GDP directly, disaggregating it into its constituent components to examine whether their distinct associations with conflict onset can shed some light into the black box. Analysis of the individual correlations allows for identification of the driving force behind the aggregate statistical relationship. With this information to hand, consistency checks can be made with existing theories and a new theory presented in this paper, which draws attention to a critical structural factor that drives the supply of civil war labor, namely the lack of consumption opportunities. This factor increases the likelihood of civil war in less economically developed countries as individuals with low consumption opportunities have little to lose from reordering the economic and political system. Analysis of the correlations between components of GDP and the onset of civil war shows that this new theory is most consistent with the key drivers of the aggregate relationship. The examination also highlights a new indicator, which is arguably preferable to GDP as a measure of this relationship.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions J Political Science > JC Political theory |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Politics and International Studies | ||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Gross domestic product , Civil war , Civil war -- Economic aspects, Consumption (Economics) | ||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Defence and Peace Economics | ||||||
| Publisher: | Taylor & Francis Ltd | ||||||
| ISSN: | 1024-2694 | ||||||
| Official Date: | 27 December 2019 | ||||||
| Dates: |
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| Date of first compliant deposit: | 25 February 2020 | ||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 1-17 | ||||||
| DOI: | 10.1080/10242694.2019.1703441 | ||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||
| Publication Status: | In Press | ||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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