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Pharmaceutical R & D pipeline management under trial duration uncertainty

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Gökalp, Elvan and Branke, Juergen (2020) Pharmaceutical R & D pipeline management under trial duration uncertainty. Computers & Chemical Engineering, 136 . 106782. doi:10.1016/j.compchemeng.2020.106782

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.compchemeng.2020.10678...

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Abstract

We consider a pharmaceutical Research & Development (R & D) pipeline management problem under two significant uncertainties: the outcomes of clinical trials and their durations. We present an Approximate Dynamic Programming (ADP) approach to solve the problem efficiently. Given an initial list of potential drug candidates, ADP derives a policy that suggests the trials to be performed at each decision point and state. For the classical R&D pipeline planning problem with deterministic trial durations, we compare our ADP approach with other methods from the literature, and find that it can find better solutions more quickly in particular for larger problem instances. For the case with stochastic trial durations, we compare the ADP algorithm with a myopic approach and show that the expected net profit obtained by the derived ADP policy is higher (almost 20% for a 10-drug portfolio).

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76 Electronic computers. Computer science. Computer software
R Medicine > RS Pharmacy and materia medica
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School
Faculty of Science > WMG (Formerly the Warwick Manufacturing Group)
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Pharmaceutical industry , Pharmaceutical industry -- Research, Heuristic algorithms, Pharmacy -- Data processing , Pharmacy informatics
Journal or Publication Title: Computers & Chemical Engineering
Publisher: Elsevier
ISSN: 0098-1354
Official Date: 8 May 2020
Dates:
DateEvent
8 May 2020Published
20 February 2020Available
14 February 2020Accepted
Volume: 136
Article Number: 106782
DOI: 10.1016/j.compchemeng.2020.106782
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Restricted or Subscription Access
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
EP/P006485/1[EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266

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