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Rounding of probability forecasts: the SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth

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Clements, Michael P. (2008) Rounding of probability forecasts: the SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth. Working Paper. Coventry: University of Warwick, Department of Economics. Warwick economic research papers (No.869).

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Abstract

We consider the possibility that respondents to the Survey of Professional Forecasters round their probability forecasts of the event that real output will decline in the future. We make various assumptions about how forecasters round their forecasts, including that individuals have constant patterns of responses across forecasts. Our primary interests are the impact of rounding on assessments of the internal consistency of the probability forecasts of a decline in real output and the histograms for annual real output growth, and on the relationship between the probability forecasts and the point forecasts of quarterly output growth.

Item Type:

Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)

Subjects:

H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory

Divisions:

Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics

Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):

Economic surveys, Estimation theory, Econometric models, Economic forecasting

Series Name:

Warwick economic research papers

Publisher:

University of Warwick, Department of Economics

Place of Publication:

Coventry

Official Date:

22 September 2008

Dates:

Date	Event
22 September 2008	Published

Number:

No.869

Number of Pages:

Status:

Not Peer Reviewed

Access rights to Published version:

Open Access

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