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Data for Vote expectations versus vote intentions : rival forecasting strategies
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Murr, Andreas , Stegmaier, Mary and Lewis-Beck, Michael S. (2019) Data for Vote expectations versus vote intentions : rival forecasting strategies. [Dataset]
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/9JLCSY
Abstract
Are ordinary citizens better at predicting election results than conventional voter intention polls? We address this question by comparing eight forecasting models for British general elections: one based on voters’ expectations of who will win and seven based on who voters themselves intend to vote for (including “uniform national swing model” and “cube rule” models). The data come from ComRes and Gallup polls as well as the Essex Continuous Monitoring Surveys, 1950 – 2017, yielding 449 months with both expectation and intention polls. The large sample size allows us to compare the models’ prediction accuracy not just in the months prior to the election, but over the years leading up to it. In predicting both the winning party and parties’ seat shares, we find that vote expectations outperform vote intent ions models. Vote expectations thus appear an excellent tool for predicting the winning party and its seat share.
Item Type: | Dataset | ||||||
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Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HM Sociology J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) > JN101 Great Britain |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics Faculty of Social Sciences > Politics and International Studies |
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Type of Data: | Observational data | ||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Election forecasting -- Great Britain, Public opinion polls | ||||||
Publisher: | University of Warwick, Department of Politics and International Studies (PIAS) | ||||||
Official Date: | 15 July 2019 | ||||||
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Status: | Not Peer Reviewed | ||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||
Media of Output (format): | .tab .R .pdf | ||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||
Copyright Holders: | University of Warwick | ||||||
Description: | Data record consists of 12 data files in .tab and .R format, and an appendix PDF. |
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