Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo and Vukotić, Marija (2020) Patent-based news shocks. Review of Economics and Statistics . pp. 1-45. doi:10.1162/rest_a_00943 (In Press)

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Abstract

What do patents tell us about the economic effects of future technological improvements? We identify aggregate and industry level patent-based news shocks by exploiting changes in stock market valuations of firms that obtain patent grants. Our shocks resemble diffusion news, as they do not affect total factor productivity in the short run but induce a strong permanent effect after five years. We find that patent-based news shocks produce positive comovement between consumption, output, investment, and hours. They also generate positive responses in inflation and in the federal funds rate, consistent with standard New Keynesian models.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Technology -- Economic aspects, Information theory in economics, Patents -- Economic aspects
Journal or Publication Title:	Review of Economics and Statistics
Publisher:	MIT Press
ISSN:	0034-6535
Official Date:	19 June 2020
Dates:	Date Event 19 June 2020 Available 7 April 2020 Accepted
Page Range:	pp. 1-45
DOI:	10.1162/rest_a_00943
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	In Press
Publisher Statement:	This is the author’s final version, and it; has been accepted for publication in Review of Economics and Statistics.
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access
Related URLs:	Publisher Related dataset

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