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Timing terminators : forecasting sunspot cycle 25 onset
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Leamon, Robert J., McIntosh, Scott W., Chapman, Sandra C. and Watkins, Nicholas W. (2020) Timing terminators : forecasting sunspot cycle 25 onset. Solar Physics, 295 (2). doi:10.1007/s11207-020-1595-3 ISSN 1573-093X.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-020-1595-3
Abstract
Recent research has demonstrated the existence of a new type of solar event, the “terminator.” Unlike the Sun’s signature events, flares and coronal mass ejections, the terminator most likely originates in the solar interior, at or near the tachocline. The terminator signals the end of a magnetic activity cycle at the Sun’s equator and the start of a sunspot cycle at mid-latitudes. Observations indicate that the time difference between these events is very short, less than a solar rotation, in the context of the sunspot cycle. As the (definitive) start and end point of solar activity cycles the precise timing of terminators should permit new investigations into the meteorology of our star’s atmosphere. In this article we use a standard method in signal processing, the Hilbert transform, to identify a mathematically robust signature of terminators in sunspot records and in radiative proxies. Using a linear extrapolation of the Hilbert phase of the sunspot number and F10.7 cm solar radio flux time series we can achieve higher fidelity historical terminator timing than previous estimates have permitted. Further, this method presents a unique opportunity to project, from analysis of sunspot data, when the next terminator will occur, May 2020 (
| Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||
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| Subjects: | Q Science > QB Astronomy | |||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Physics | |||||||||
| SWORD Depositor: | Library Publications Router | |||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Solar cycle, Sunspots, Terminators (Astronomy) | |||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Solar Physics | |||||||||
| Publisher: | Springer Science and Business Media LLC | |||||||||
| ISSN: | 1573-093X | |||||||||
| Official Date: | 27 February 2020 | |||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 295 | |||||||||
| Number: | 2 | |||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1007/s11207-020-1595-3 | |||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||
| Reuse Statement (publisher, data, author rights): | This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Solar Physics. The final authenticated version is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-020-1595-3 | |||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | |||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 15 May 2020 | |||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 27 February 2021 | |||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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