Skip to content Skip to navigation
University of Warwick
  • Study
  • |
  • Research
  • |
  • Business
  • |
  • Alumni
  • |
  • News
  • |
  • About

University of Warwick
Publications service & WRAP

Highlight your research

  • WRAP
    • Home
    • Search WRAP
    • Browse by Warwick Author
    • Browse WRAP by Year
    • Browse WRAP by Subject
    • Browse WRAP by Department
    • Browse WRAP by Funder
    • Browse Theses by Department
  • Publications Service
    • Home
    • Search Publications Service
    • Browse by Warwick Author
    • Browse Publications service by Year
    • Browse Publications service by Subject
    • Browse Publications service by Department
    • Browse Publications service by Funder
  • Help & Advice
University of Warwick

The Library

  • Login
  • Admin

Probabilistic biases meet the Bayesian brain

Tools
- Tools
+ Tools

Chater, Nick, Zhu, Jian-Qiao, Spicer, Jake, Sundh, Joakim, León-Villagrá, Pablo and Sanborn, Adam N. (2020) Probabilistic biases meet the Bayesian brain. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 29 (5). pp. 506-512. doi:10.1177/0963721420954801 ISSN 0963-7214.

[img]
Preview
PDF
WRAP-probabilistic-biases-meet-Bayesian-brain-Chater-2020.pdf - Published Version - Requires a PDF viewer.
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.

Download (417Kb) | Preview
[img] PDF
WRAP-probabilistic-biases-meet-Bayesian-brain-Chater-2020.pdf - Accepted Version
Embargoed item. Restricted access to Repository staff only - Requires a PDF viewer.

Download (884Kb)
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721420954801

Request Changes to record.

Abstract

Bayesian cognitive science sees the mind as a spectacular probabilistic inference machine. But Judgment and Decision Making research has spent half a century uncovering how dramatically and systematically people depart from rational norms. This paper outlines recent research that opens up the possibility of an unexpected reconciliation. The key hypothesis is that the brain neither represents nor calculates with probabilities; but approximates probabilistic calculations through drawing samples from memory or mental simulation. Sampling models diverge from perfect probabilistic calculations in ways that capture many classic JDM findings, and offers the hope of an integrated explanation of classic heuristics and biases, including availability, representativeness, and anchoring and adjustment.

Item Type: Journal Article
Alternative Title:
Subjects: B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School > Behavioural Science
Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Psychology
Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Reasoning (Psychology), Probabilities, Bayesian statistical decision theory, Judgment
Journal or Publication Title: Current Directions in Psychological Science
Publisher: Sage Publications Ltd.
ISSN: 0963-7214
Official Date: 1 October 2020
Dates:
DateEvent
1 October 2020Published
5 October 2020Available
5 May 2020Accepted
Volume: 29
Number: 5
Page Range: pp. 506-512
DOI: 10.1177/0963721420954801
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Reuse Statement (publisher, data, author rights): Posted ahead of print. Chater, Nick, Zhu, Jian-Qiao, Spicer, Jake, Sundh, Joakim, León-Villagrá, Pablo and Sanborn, Adam N. (2020) Probabilistic biases meet the Bayesian brain. Current Directions in Psychological Science. Copyright © 2020 by Association for Psychological Science. Reprinted by permission of SAGE Publications. https://journals.sagepub.com/home/cdp
Access rights to Published version: Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit: 14 May 2020
Date of first compliant Open Access: 15 May 2020
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
817492-SAMPLINGEuropean Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000781
ES/P008976/1[ESRC] Economic and Social Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000269
RP2012-V-022Leverhulme Trusthttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000275
UNSPECIFIEDNational Institute for Economic & Social Research (Great Britain)http://viaf.org/viaf/138715288
Related URLs:
  • Publisher

Request changes or add full text files to a record

Repository staff actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

View more statistics

twitter

Email us: wrap@warwick.ac.uk
Contact Details
About Us