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Chater, Nick, Zhu, Jian-Qiao, Spicer, Jake, Sundh, Joakim, León-Villagrá, Pablo and Sanborn, Adam N. (2020) Probabilistic biases meet the Bayesian brain. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 29 (5). pp. 506-512. doi:10.1177/0963721420954801 ISSN 0963-7214.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721420954801
Abstract
Bayesian cognitive science sees the mind as a spectacular probabilistic inference machine. But Judgment and Decision Making research has spent half a century uncovering how dramatically and systematically people depart from rational norms. This paper outlines recent research that opens up the possibility of an unexpected reconciliation. The key hypothesis is that the brain neither represents nor calculates with probabilities; but approximates probabilistic calculations through drawing samples from memory or mental simulation. Sampling models diverge from perfect probabilistic calculations in ways that capture many classic JDM findings, and offers the hope of an integrated explanation of classic heuristics and biases, including availability, representativeness, and anchoring and adjustment.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology | |||||||||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School > Behavioural Science Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Psychology Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School |
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| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Reasoning (Psychology), Probabilities, Bayesian statistical decision theory, Judgment | |||||||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Current Directions in Psychological Science | |||||||||||||||
| Publisher: | Sage Publications Ltd. | |||||||||||||||
| ISSN: | 0963-7214 | |||||||||||||||
| Official Date: | 1 October 2020 | |||||||||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 29 | |||||||||||||||
| Number: | 5 | |||||||||||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 506-512 | |||||||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1177/0963721420954801 | |||||||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||||||||
| Reuse Statement (publisher, data, author rights): | Posted ahead of print. Chater, Nick, Zhu, Jian-Qiao, Spicer, Jake, Sundh, Joakim, León-Villagrá, Pablo and Sanborn, Adam N. (2020) Probabilistic biases meet the Bayesian brain. Current Directions in Psychological Science. Copyright © 2020 by Association for Psychological Science. Reprinted by permission of SAGE Publications. https://journals.sagepub.com/home/cdp | |||||||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | |||||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 14 May 2020 | |||||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 15 May 2020 | |||||||||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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