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Probabilistic biases meet the Bayesian brain
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Chater, Nick, Zhu, Jian-Qiao, Spicer, Jake, Sundh, Joakim, León-Villagrá, Pablo and Sanborn, Adam N. (2020) Probabilistic biases meet the Bayesian brain. Current Directions in Psychological Science . (In Press)
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Abstract
Bayesian cognitive science sees the mind as a spectacular probabilistic inference machine. But Judgment and Decision Making research has spent half a century uncovering how dramatically and systematically people depart from rational norms. This paper outlines recent research that opens up the possibility of an unexpected reconciliation. The key hypothesis is that the brain neither represents nor calculates with probabilities; but approximates probabilistic calculations through drawing samples from memory or mental simulation. Sampling models diverge from perfect probabilistic calculations in ways that capture many classic JDM findings, and offers the hope of an integrated explanation of classic heuristics and biases, including availability, representativeness, and anchoring and adjustment.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology | |||||||||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School > Behavioural Science Faculty of Science > Psychology Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School |
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| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Reasoning (Psychology), Probabilities, Bayesian statistical decision theory, Judgment | |||||||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Current Directions in Psychological Science | |||||||||||||||
| Publisher: | Sage Publications Ltd. | |||||||||||||||
| ISSN: | 0963-7214 | |||||||||||||||
| Official Date: | 2020 | |||||||||||||||
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| Date of first compliant deposit: | 14 May 2020 | |||||||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||||||||
| Publication Status: | In Press | |||||||||||||||
| Publisher Statement: | Posted ahead of print. Chater, Nick, Zhu, Jian-Qiao, Spicer, Jake, Sundh, Joakim, León-Villagrá, Pablo and Sanborn, Adam N. (2020) Probabilistic biases meet the Bayesian brain. Current Directions in Psychological Science. Copyright © 2020 by Association for Psychological Science. Reprinted by permission of SAGE Publications. https://journals.sagepub.com/home/cdp | |||||||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | |||||||||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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