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An evaluation and comparison of models of risky inter-temporal choice

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Luckman, Ashley, Donkin, Chris and Newell, Ben R. (2020) An evaluation and comparison of models of risky inter-temporal choice. Psychological Review, 127 (6). pp. 1097-1138. doi:10.1037/rev0000223

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/rev0000223

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Abstract

Risky inter-temporal choices involve choosing between options that can differ in outcomes, their probability of receipt, and the delay until receipt. To date, there has been no attempt to systematically test, compare and evaluate theoretical models of such choices. We contribute to theory development by generating predictions from seven models for three common manipulations- magnitude, certainty and immediacy- across six different types of risky intertemporal choices. Qualitative and quantitative comparisons of model predictions to data from an experiment involving almost 4000 individual choices revealed that an attribute comparisonmodel, newly modified to incorporate risky inter-temporal choices, (the Risky Inter-Temporal Choice Heuristic or RITCH) provided the best account of the data. Results are consistent with growing evidence in support of attribute comparison models in the risky and inter-temporal choice literatures, and suggest that the relatively poorer fits of translation-based models reflect their inability to predict the differential impact of certainty and immediacy manipulations. Future theories of risky inter-temporal choice may benefit from treating risk and time as independent dimensions, and focusing on attribute-comparison rather than value-comparison processes.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School > Behavioural Science
Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Risk management, Rational choice theory, Decision making, Equilibrium (Economics) -- Mathematical models
Journal or Publication Title: Psychological Review
Publisher: American Psychological Association
ISSN: 0033-295X
Official Date: 2020
Dates:
DateEvent
2020Published
July 2020Available
4 May 2020Accepted
Volume: 127
Number: 6
Page Range: pp. 1097-1138
DOI: 10.1037/rev0000223
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Reuse Statement (publisher, data, author rights): ©American Psychological Association, 2020. This paper is not the copy of record and may not exactly replicate the authoritative document published in the APA journal. Please do not copy or cite without author's permission. The final article is available, upon publication, at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/rev0000223
Access rights to Published version: Restricted or Subscription Access
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
FT110100151Australian Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000923
DE130100129Australian Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000923
DP140101145Australian Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000923
DP160101186Australian Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000923
DP190101675Australian Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000923
ES/P008976/1[ESRC] Economic and Social Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000269
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