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An evaluation and comparison of models of risky inter-temporal choice
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Luckman, Ashley, Donkin, Chris and Newell, Ben R. (2020) An evaluation and comparison of models of risky inter-temporal choice. Psychological Review . doi:10.1037/rev0000223 (In Press)
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WRAP-evaluation-comparison-models-risky-inter-temporal-choice-Luckmann-2020.pdf - Accepted Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Download (1800Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/rev0000223
Abstract
Risky inter-temporal choices involve choosing between options that can differ in outcomes, their probability of receipt, and the delay until receipt. To date, there has been no attempt to systematically test, compare and evaluate theoretical models of such choices. We contribute to theory development by generating predictions from seven models for three common manipulations- magnitude, certainty and immediacy- across six different types of risky intertemporal choices. Qualitative and quantitative comparisons of model predictions to data from an experiment involving almost 4000 individual choices revealed that an attribute comparisonmodel, newly modified to incorporate risky inter-temporal choices, (the Risky Inter-Temporal Choice Heuristic or RITCH) provided the best account of the data. Results are consistent with growing evidence in support of attribute comparison models in the risky and inter-temporal choice literatures, and suggest that the relatively poorer fits of translation-based models reflect their inability to predict the differential impact of certainty and immediacy manipulations. Future theories of risky inter-temporal choice may benefit from treating risk and time as independent dimensions, and focusing on attribute-comparison rather than value-comparison processes.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School > Behavioural Science Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School |
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| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Risk management, Rational choice theory, Decision making, Equilibrium (Economics) -- Mathematical models | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Psychological Review | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Publisher: | American Psychological Association | |||||||||||||||||||||
| ISSN: | 0033-295X | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Official Date: | July 2020 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Date of first compliant deposit: | 21 May 2020 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1037/rev0000223 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Publication Status: | In Press | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Publisher Statement: | ©American Psychological Association, 2020. This paper is not the copy of record and may not exactly replicate the authoritative document published in the APA journal. Please do not copy or cite without author's permission. The final article is available, upon publication, at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/rev0000223 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | |||||||||||||||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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