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Bayesian inference for multi-strain epidemics with application to Escherichia coli O157 : H7 in feedlot cattle
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Touloupou, Panayiota, Finkenstädt, Bärbel, Besser, Thomas E., French, Nigel P. and Spencer, Simon E. F. (2020) Bayesian inference for multi-strain epidemics with application to Escherichia coli O157 : H7 in feedlot cattle. The Annals of Applied Statistics, 14 (4). pp. 1925-1944. doi:10.1214/20-AOAS1366
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1214/20-AOAS1366
Abstract
For most pathogens, testing procedures can be used to distinguish between different strains with which individuals are infected. Due to the growing availability of such data, multistrain models have increased in popularity over the past few years. Quantifying the interactions between different strains of a pathogen is crucial in order to obtain a more complete understanding of the transmission process, but statistical methods for this type of problem are still in the early stages of development. Motivated by this demand, we construct a stochastic epidemic model that incorporates additional strain information and propose a statistical algorithm for efficient inference. The model improves upon existing methods in the sense that it allows for both imperfect diagnostic test sensitivities and strain misclassification. Extensive simulation studies were conducted in order to assess the performance of our method, while the utility of the developed methodology is demonstrated on data obtained from a longitudinal study of Escherichia coli O157:H7 strains in feedlot cattle.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Statistics | ||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | The Annals of Applied Statistics | ||||||
| Publisher: | Institute of Mathematical Statistics | ||||||
| ISSN: | 1932-6157 | ||||||
| Official Date: | 19 December 2020 | ||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 14 | ||||||
| Number: | 4 | ||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 1925-1944 | ||||||
| DOI: | 10.1214/20-AOAS1366 | ||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||
| Copyright Holders: | Copyright © 2020 Institute of Mathematical Statistics | ||||||
| Related URLs: |
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