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Reconciled estimates and nowcasts of regional output in the UK
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Koop, Gary, McIntyre, Stuart, Mitchell, James and Poon, Aubrey (2020) Reconciled estimates and nowcasts of regional output in the UK. National Institute Economic Review, 253 . R44-R59. doi:10.1017/nie.2020.29
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/nie.2020.29
Abstract
There is renewed interest in levelling up the regions of the UK. The combination of social and political discontent, and the sluggishness of key UK macroeconomic indicators like productivity growth, has led to increased interest in understanding the regional economies of the UK. In turn, this has led to more investment in economic statistics. Specifically, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) recently started to produce quarterly regional GDP data for the nine English regions and Wales that date back to 2012Q1. This complements existing real GVA data for the regions available from the ONS on an annual basis back to 1998; with the devolved administrations of Scotland and Northern Ireland producing their own quarterly output measures. In this paper we reconcile these two data sources along with UK quarterly output data that date back to 1970. This enables us to produce both more timely real terms estimates of quarterly economic growth in the regions of the UK and a new reconciled historical time-series of quarterly regional real output data from 1970. We explore a number of features of interest of these new data. This includes producing a new quarterly regional productivity series and commenting on the evolution of regional productivity growth in the UK.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory | ||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School | ||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Economic forecasting -- Great Britain, Regional economics -- Statistics, Great Britain -- Economic conditions -- Statistics, Economic development, Great Britain -- Economic conditions -- Mathematical models | ||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | National Institute Economic Review | ||||||
| Publisher: | Sage Publications Ltd. | ||||||
| ISSN: | 0027-9501 | ||||||
| Official Date: | 28 July 2020 | ||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 253 | ||||||
| Page Range: | R44-R59 | ||||||
| DOI: | 10.1017/nie.2020.29 | ||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||
| Publisher Statement: | This article has been published in a revised form in National Institute Economic Review [http://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2020.29. This version is free to view and download for private research and study only. Not for re-distribution, re-sale or use in derivative works. © copyright holder. | ||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||
| Copyright Holders: | © National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 2020 | ||||||
| Description: | Free access |
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