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Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies
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(2020) Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 287 (1932). 20201405. doi:10.1098/rspb.2020.1405 ISSN 1471-2954.
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WRAP-Key-questions-modelling-COVID-19-Keeling-2020.pdf - Published Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0. Download (515Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.1405
Abstract
Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement exit strategies that relax restrictions while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute ‘Models for an exit strategy’ workshop (11–15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, would allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. This roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policymakers, and has three parts: (i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; (ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; and (iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.
Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||
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Subjects: | R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine | |||||||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics |
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SWORD Depositor: | Library Publications Router | |||||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | COVID-19 (Disease) , COVID-19 (Disease) -- Mathematical models | |||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences | |||||||||
Publisher: | The Royal Society | |||||||||
ISSN: | 1471-2954 | |||||||||
Official Date: | 12 August 2020 | |||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 287 | |||||||||
Number: | 1932 | |||||||||
Article Number: | 20201405 | |||||||||
DOI: | 10.1098/rspb.2020.1405 | |||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | |||||||||
Copyright Holders: | © 2020 The Authors. | |||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 4 September 2020 | |||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 7 September 2020 | |||||||||
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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