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Continental-scale dynamics of avian influenza in U.S. waterfowl are driven by demography, migration and temperature

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Gorsich, Erin E., Webb, Colleen T., Mertone, Andrew A., Hoetinge, Jennifer A., Miller, Ryan S., Farnsworth, Matthew L., Swafford, Seth R., De Libertog, Thomas J., Pederseng, Kerri, Franklin, Alan B., McLean, Robert G., Wilsonk, Kenneth R. and Doherty Jr, Paul F. (2021) Continental-scale dynamics of avian influenza in U.S. waterfowl are driven by demography, migration and temperature. Ecological Applications, 31 (2). e2245. doi:10.1002/eap.2245

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2245

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Abstract

Emerging diseases of wildlife origin are increasingly spilling over into humans and domestic animals. Surveillance and risk assessments for transmission between these populations are informed by a mechanistic understanding of the pathogens in wildlife reservoirs. For avian influenza viruses (AIV), much observational and experimental work in wildlife has been conducted at local scales, yet fully understanding their spread and distribution requires assessing the mechanisms acting at both local, (e.g., intrinsic epidemic dynamics), and continental scales, (e.g., long‐distance migration). Here, we combined a large, continental‐scale dataset on low pathogenic, Type A AIV in the United States with a novel network‐based application of bird banding/recovery data to investigate the migration‐based drivers of AIV and their relative importance compared to well‐characterised local drivers (e.g. demography, environmental persistence). We compared among regression models reflecting hypothesized ecological processes and evaluated their ability to predict AIV in space and time using within and out‐of‐sample validation. We found that predictors of AIV were associated with multiple mechanisms at local and continental scales. Hypotheses characterising local epidemic dynamics were strongly supported, with age, the age‐specific aggregation of migratory birds in an area and temperature being the best predictors of infection. Hypotheses defining larger, network‐based features of the migration processes, such as clustering or between‐cluster mixing explained less variation but were also supported. Therefore, our results support a role for local processes in driving the continental distribution of AIV.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- )
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Avian influenza, Waterfowl -- North America, Avian influenza -- Prevention , Migratory birds -- Diseases, Avian influenza -- Environmental aspects, Avian influenza -- Epidemiology, Influenza A virus
Journal or Publication Title: Ecological Applications
Publisher: Ecological Society of America
ISSN: 1051-0761
Official Date: March 2021
Dates:
DateEvent
March 2021Published
24 October 2020Available
16 August 2020Accepted
Volume: 31
Number: 2
Article Number: e2245
DOI: 10.1002/eap.2245
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
USDA‐AHPIS‐10025‐VSCEAH00‐17‐0014U.S. Department of Agriculturehttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000199
USDA‐AHPIS‐10025‐VSCEAH00‐18‐0017U.S. Department of Agriculturehttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000199
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