Skip to content Skip to navigation
University of Warwick
  • Study
  • |
  • Research
  • |
  • Business
  • |
  • Alumni
  • |
  • News
  • |
  • About

University of Warwick
Publications service & WRAP

Highlight your research

  • WRAP
    • Home
    • Search WRAP
    • Browse by Warwick Author
    • Browse WRAP by Year
    • Browse WRAP by Subject
    • Browse WRAP by Department
    • Browse WRAP by Funder
    • Browse Theses by Department
  • Publications Service
    • Home
    • Search Publications Service
    • Browse by Warwick Author
    • Browse Publications service by Year
    • Browse Publications service by Subject
    • Browse Publications service by Department
    • Browse Publications service by Funder
  • Help & Advice
University of Warwick

The Library

  • Login
  • Admin

Preliminary analysis of the transmission dynamics of nosocomial infections: stochastic and management effects

Tools
- Tools
+ Tools

UNSPECIFIED (1999) Preliminary analysis of the transmission dynamics of nosocomial infections: stochastic and management effects. JOURNAL OF HOSPITAL INFECTION, 43 (2). pp. 131-147. ISSN 0195-6701.

Research output not available from this repository.

Request-a-Copy directly from author or use local Library Get it For Me service.

Request Changes to record.

Abstract

A simple mathematical model is developed for the spread of hand-borne nosocomial pathogens such as Staphylococcus aureus within a general medical-surgical ward. In contrast to previous models a stochastic approach is used. Computer simulations are used to explore the properties of the model, and the results are presented in terms of the pathogen's successful introduction rate, ward-level prevalence, and colonized patient-days, emphasizing the general effects of changes in management of patients and carers.

Small changes in the transmissibility of the organism resulted in large changes in all three measures. Even small increases in the frequency of effective handwashes were enough to bring endemic organisms under control. Reducing the number of colonized patients admitted to the ward was also an effective control measure across a wide range of different situations. Increasing surveillance activities had little effect on the successful introduction rate but gave an almost linear reduction in colonized patient-days and ward-level prevalence. Shorter lengths of patient stay were accompanied by higher successful introduction rates, but had little effect on the other measures unless the mean time before detection of a colonized individual was large compared to the mean length of stay.

We conclude that chance effects are likely to be amongst the most important factors in determining the course of an outbreak. Mathematical models can provide valuable insights into the non-linear interactions between a small number of processes, but for the very small populations found in hospital wards, a stochastic approach is essential. (C) 1999 The Hospital Infection Society.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR355 Virology
Journal or Publication Title: JOURNAL OF HOSPITAL INFECTION
Publisher: W B SAUNDERS CO LTD
ISSN: 0195-6701
Official Date: October 1999
Dates:
DateEvent
October 1999UNSPECIFIED
Volume: 43
Number: 2
Number of Pages: 17
Page Range: pp. 131-147
Publication Status: Published

Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge

Request changes or add full text files to a record

Repository staff actions (login required)

View Item View Item
twitter

Email us: wrap@warwick.ac.uk
Contact Details
About Us