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Enhancing COVID-19 decision making by creating an assurance case for epidemiological models
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Habli, Ibrahim, Alexander, Rob, Hawkins, Richard, Sujan, Mark-Alexander, McDermid, John, Picardi, Chiara and Lawton, Tom (2020) Enhancing COVID-19 decision making by creating an assurance case for epidemiological models. BMJ Health & Care Informatics, 27 (3). e100165. doi:10.1136/bmjhci-2020-100165 ISSN 2632-1009.
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WRAP-Enhancing-COVID-19-decision-creating-assurance-epidemiological-models-Sujan-2020.pdf - Published Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Available under License Creative Commons: Attribution-Noncommercial 4.0. Download (355Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjhci-2020-100165
Abstract
When the UK government was first confronted with the very real threat of a COVID-19 pandemic, policy-makers turned quickly, and initially almost exclusively, to scientific data provided by epidemiological models. These models have had a direct and significant influence on the policies and decisions, such as social distancing and closure of schools, which aim to reduce the risk posed by COVID-19 to public health.1 The models suggested that depending on the strategies chosen, the number of deaths could vary by hundreds of thousands. From a safety engineering perspective, it is clear that the data generated by epidemiological models are safety critical, and that, therefore, the models themselves should be regarded as safety-critical systems.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||
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Subjects: | B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Medicine > Warwick Medical School | ||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | COVID-19 (Disease), Decision making, Epidemiology | ||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | BMJ Health & Care Informatics | ||||||
Publisher: | BMJ Group | ||||||
ISSN: | 2632-1009 | ||||||
Official Date: | 7 September 2020 | ||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 27 | ||||||
Number: | 3 | ||||||
Article Number: | e100165 | ||||||
DOI: | 10.1136/bmjhci-2020-100165 | ||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 17 September 2020 | ||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 18 September 2020 |
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